WEEK 14 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 2/10/14)

#KPI Headlines:

  • Big East and American Match Game: The Big East and American (both with 10 teams) have both played exactly 233 games and scored exactly 17,171 points.
  • Big Wins: SMU (vs. Cincinnati, #KPI value .68) had its best win of the season on Saturday to move to No. 45.
  • Most Difficult Remaining Strength of Schedule of teams in the #KPI 1-68: 7-Michigan; 8-Minnesota; 10-Colorado; 11-Arizona State; 12-Oklahoma State; 15-VCU; 16-Kansas State; 18-Texas; 20-Iowa; 21-Oklahoma
  • Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule of teams in the #KPI 1-68: 206-Wichita State; 189-Southern Miss; 161-North Dakota State; 109-Gonzaga; 108-SMU; 101-San Diego State; 95-Saint Joseph’s; 93-Missouri; 92-Memphis; 91-Cincinnati

NEW!! #KPI resumes for each team ranked from highest to lowest #KPI value per game (through February 9): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/kpi-rank-by-game-thru-2-9-14.xlsx

#KPI by Team (through February 9): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-thru-feb-9.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through February 9): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-thru-feb-9.pdf

#KPI by Game (through February 9): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-thru-feb-9.pdf

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season through February 9: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-2-9-14.pdf

#KPI Basketball Field of 68 (through games of February 9, 2014): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined (for now) by best conference record, then best overall record, then best #KPI.

  1. BIG 12 / #1 Kansas (18-5, 9-1 Big 12), .385 / Best Win: at Iowa State .90
  2. PAC-12 / #2 Arizona (23-1, 10-1 Pac-12), .378 / Best Win: at San Diego State 1.03
  3. BIG EAST / #3 Villanova (21-2, 9-1 Big East), .340 / Best Win: at Saint Joseph’s .82
  4. MVC / #4 Wichita State (25-0, 12-0 MVC), .336 / Best Win: at Saint Louis .98
  5. #5 Wisconsin (19-5, 6-5 Big Ten), .330 / Best Win: at Virginia .94
  6. ACC / #6 Syracuse (23-0, 10-0 ACC), .327 / Best Win: vs. Villanova .69
  7. BIG TEN / #7 Michigan State (20-4, 9-2 Big Ten), .310 / Best Win: at Texas .87
  8. SEC / #8 Florida (21-2, 10-0 SEC), .287 / Best Win: vs. Memphis .61
  9. #9 Creighton (19-4, 9-2 Big East), .279 / Best Win: at Villanova 1.12
  10. #10 Massachusetts (19-4, 6-3 A-10), .275 / Best Win: at Ohio .76
  11. #11 Ohio State (19-5, 6-5 Big Ten), .273 / Best Win: at Wisconsin .88
  12. #12 Iowa State (18-4, 6-4 Big 12), .273 / Best Win: at Oklahoma State .73
  13. MOUNTAIN WEST / #13 San Diego State (21-1, 10-0 Mountain West), .270 / Best Win: at Kansas .94
  14. ATLANTIC 10 / #14 Saint Louis (22-2, 9-0 A-10), .267 / Best Win: at Saint Joseph’s .79
  15. #15 Duke (19-5, 8-3 ACC), .266 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .93
  16. #16 Kentucky (18-5, 8-2 SEC), .266 / Best Win: at Missouri .71
  17. #17 Virginia (19-5, 10-1 ACC), .265 / Best Win: at Pittsburgh .87
  18. AMERICAN / #18 Cincinnati (22-3, 11-1 American), .264 / Best Win: at Memphis .90
  19. #19 Michigan (17-6, 9-2 Big Ten), .259 / Best Win: at Michigan State .92
  20. #20 UCLA (18-5, 7-3 Pac-12), .246 / Best Win: at Colorado .84
  21. #21 Texas (18-5, 7-3 Big 12), .243 / Best Win: at North Carolina .73
  22. #22 New Mexico (18-4, 9-1 Mountain West), .242 / Best Win: at New Mexico State .71
  23. WEST COAST / #23 Gonzaga (21-4, 11-1 WCC), .225 / Best Win: at West Virginia .56
  24. #24 Iowa (18-6, 7-4 Big Ten), .224 / Best Win: at Ohio State .89
  25. #25 Louisville (19-4, 8-2 American), .222 / Best Win: at Connecticut .88
  26. #26 Pittsburgh (20-4, 8-3 ACC), .221 / Best Win: at N.C. State .68
  27. #27 Oklahoma (18-6, 7-4 Big 12), .220 / Best Win: at Texas .81
  28. #28 VCU (19-5, 7-2 A-10), .218 / Best Win: at Virginia .86
  29. #29 Connecticut (18-5, 6-4 American), .209 / Best Win: at Memphis .85
  30. #30 George Washington (19-4, 7-2 A-10), .206 / Best Win: at Manhattan .74
  31. #31 Oklahoma State (16-7, 4-6 Big 12), .206 / Best Win: vs. Louisiana Tech .66
  32. #32 North Carolina (16-7, 6-4 ACC), .204 / Best Win: at Michigan State .98
  33. CONFERENCE USA / #33 Southern Miss (21-3, 8-1 C-USA), .200 / Best Win: at North Dakota State .77
  34. MAC / #34 Toledo (20-3, 8-2 MAC), .198 / Best Win: at Akron .71
  35. #35 Stanford (15-7, 6-4 Pac-12), .198 / Best Win: at Connecticut .82
  36. #36 Memphis (18-5, 7-3 American), .195 / Best Win: at Louisville .89
  37. #37 Colorado (18-6, 7-4 Pac-12), .192 / Best Win: vs. Kansas .58
  38. #38 Kansas State (16-7, 6-4 Big 12), .186 / Best Win: vs. Gonzaga .70
  39. #39 Oregon (15-8, 3-8 Pac-12), .183 / Best Win: at Mississippi .72
  40. #40 Arizona State (18-6, 7-4 Pac-12), .183 / Best Win: at California .67
  41. #41 California (15-8, 6-4 Pac-12), .182 / Best Win: at Stanford .74
  42. #42 Dayton (16-8, 6-4 A-10), .178 / Best Win: at Mississippi .70
  43. #43 Minnesota (16-8, 5-6 Big Ten), .178 / Best Win: at Richmond .73
  44. SUMMIT / #44 North Dakota State (18-6, 7-2 Summit), .174 / Best Win: at Utah Valley .55
  45. #45 SMU (19-5, 8-3 American), .170 / Best Win: vs. Cincinnati .68
  46. #46 Missouri (16-7, 4-6 SEC), .168 / Best Win: at N.C. State .64
  47. #47 Tennessee (15-8, 6-4 SEC), .168 / Best Win: at LSU .74
  48. #48 Saint Joseph’s (16-7, 6-3 A-10), .164 / Best Win: at Dayton .67
  49. #49 Xavier (16-7, 6-4 Big East), .163 / Best Win: vs. Cincinnati .82
  50. #50 Mississippi (16-7, 7-3 SEC), .160 / Best Win: at Western Kentucky .64
  51. OHIO VALLEY / #55  Belmont (19-8, 10-2 OVC), .155 / Best Win: at North Carolina .73
  52. IVY / #57 Harvard (18-4, 5-1 Ivy), .154 / Best Win: at Boston U. .65
  53. SOUTHLAND / #63 Stephen F. Austin (22-2, 11-0 Southland), .134 / Best Win: at Sam Houston State .44
  54. HORIZON / #65 Green Bay (19-5, 9-2 Horizon), .132 / Best Win: at Milwaukee .56
  55. COLONIAL / #70 Delaware (18-7, 10-0 Colonial), .121 / Best Win: at William & Mary .64
  56. ATLANTIC SUN / #76 Mercer (19-6, 10-2 Atlantic Sun), .110 / Best Win: at Mississippi .70
  57. BIG WEST / #78 UC-Santa Barbara (15-6, 6-2 Big West), .107 / Best Win: at UNLV .69
  58. SUN BELT / #82  Georgia State (17-6, 10-0 Sun Belt), .102 / Best Win: at Western Kentucky .73
  59. MAAC / #91 Iona (15-8, 12-2 MAAC), .092 / Best Win: at Canisius .55
  60. AMERICA EAST / #122 Vermont (15-9, 9-1 America East), .051 / Best Win: at Yale .45
  61. MEAC / #134 North Carolina Central (17-5, 9-1 MEAC), .041 / Best Win: at N.C. State .66
  62. WAC / #144 Utah Valley (14-8, 8-1 WAC), .034 / Best Win: Grand Canyon .30
  63. BIG SKY / #147 Weber State (13-7, 10-2 Big Sky), .033 / Best Win: North Dakota .26
  64. PATRIOT / #151 American (14-9, 10-2 Patriot), .026 / Best Win: at Holy Cross .53
  65. SOUTHERN / #154 Davidson (14-11, 10-1 Southern), .025 / Best Win: Charlotte .55
  66. NORTHEAST / #157 Robert Morris (14-11, 9-1 Northeast), .025 / Best Win: at Bryant .55
  67. SWAC / #191 Southern U. (13-10, 9-1 SWAC), -.015 / Best Win: North Florida .31
  68. BIG SOUTH / #196 VMI (14-9, 7-3 Big South), -.018 / Best Win: at Radford .46
  69. (OUT) #51 BYU (17-9, 9-4 WCC), .159 / Best Win: at Stanford .73
  70. (OUT) #52 Richmond (15-8, 5-3 A-10), .157 / Best Win: at William & Mary .62
  71. (OUT) #53 St. Mary’s-CA (18-7, 8-4 WCC), .156 / Best Win: at Boise State .60
  72. (OUT) #54 Providence (16-8, 6-5 Big East), .156 / Best Win: vs. Creighton .60
  73. (OUT) #56 Florida State (14-9, 5-6 ACC), .154 / Best Win: at Clemson .76
  74. (OUT) #58 N.C. State (15-8, 5-5 ACC), .149 / Best Win: at Tennessee .68
  75. (OUT) #59 LSU (15-7, 6-4 SEC), .144 / Best Win: Saint Joseph’s .58
  76. (OUT) #60 Baylor (14-9, 2-8 Big 12), .144 / Best Win: at Oklahoma State .75

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of February 9, 2014)

  1. Big 12 (153-77, .665 / 102-26, .797 Non-Conf) .180 KPI:
  2. Big Ten (187-97, .658 / 122-32, .792 Non-Conf) .177 KPI:
  3. Pac-12 (183-96, .656 / 119-32, .788 Non-Conf) .156 KPI:
  4. Big East (149-84, .639 / 96-31, .756 Non-Conf) .145 KPI:
  5. ACC (218-132, .623 / 139-53, .723 Non-Conf)  .131 KPI:
  6. Atlantic 10 (189-112, .628 / 131-54, .708 Non-Conf) .121 KPI:
  7. SEC (195-122, .615 / 125-52, .706 Non-Conf) .117 KPI:
  8. American (145-88, .622 / 92-35, .724 Non-Conf) .094 KPI:
  9. Mountain West (150-105, .588 / 91-46, .664 Non-Conf) .073 KPI:
  10. WCC (146-104, .584 / 83-41, .669 Non-Conf) .071 KPI:
  11. Missouri Valley (135-109, .553 / 75-49, .605 Non-Conf) .032 KPI:
  12. MAC (146-120, .549 / 86-60, .589 Non-Conf) .028 KPI:
  13. Summit (100-93, .518 / 66-59, .528 Non-Conf) .011 KPI:
  14. Horizon (120-109, .524 / 71-60, .542 Non-Conf) .010 KPI:
  15. Conference USA (206-173, .544 / 132-99, .571 Non-Conf) -.003 KPI:
  16. Sun Belt (110-112, .495 / 59-61, .492 Non-Conf) -.016 KPI:
  17. Colonial (104-115, .475 / 59-70, .457 Non-Conf) -.022 KPI:
  18. Ivy (84-79, .515 / 61-56, .521 Non-Conf) -.025 KPI:
  19. MAAC (123-137, 473 / 48-62, .436 Non-Conf) -.031 KPI:
  20. Big West (100-108, .481 / 60-68, .469 Non-Conf) -.039 KPI:
  21. Patriot (113-122, .481 / 53-62, .461 Non-Conf) -.050 KPI:
  22. Ohio Valley (140-161, .465 / 74-95, .438 Non-Conf) -.060 KPI:
  23. WAC (97-112, .464 / 55-70, .440 Non-Conf) -.062 KPI:
  24. Atlantic Sun (115-133, .464 / 53-71, .427 Non-Conf) -.063 KPI:
  25. Big Sky (108-127, .460 / 43-62, .410 Non-Conf) -.070 KPI:
  26. Southland (147-171, .462 / 70-94, .427 Non-Conf) -.077 KPI:
  27. Big South (135-155, .466 / 75-95, .441 Non-Conf) -.089 KPI:
  28. Southern (120-151, .443 / 63-94, .401 Non-Conf) -.096 KPI:
  29. Northeast (100-139, .418 / 50-89, .360 Non-Conf) -.108 KPI:
  30. SWAC (83-133, .384 / 33-83, .284 Non-Conf) -.120 KPI:
  31. America East (87-128, .405 / 39-80, .328 Non-Conf) -.123 KPI:
  32. MEAC (110-187, .370 / 48-125, .277 Non-Conf) -.136 KPI:

Top 10 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of February 9, 2014)

  1. +1.12     #9 Creighton 96, #3 Villanova 68 (Jan 20)
  2. +1.03     #2 Arizona 69, #13 San Diego State 60 (Nov 14)
  3. +0.98     #32 North Carolina 79, #7 Michigan State 65 (Dec 4)
  4. +0.98     #4 Wichita State 70, #14 Saint Louis 65 (Dec 1)
  5. +0.94     #13 San Diego State 61, #1 Kansas 57 (Jan 5)
  6. +0.94     #5 Wisconsin 48, #17 Virginia 38 (Dec 4)
  7. +0.93     #85 Northwestern 65, #5 Wisconsin 56 (Jan 29)
  8. +0.93     #15 Duke 80, #26 Pittsburgh 65 (Jan 27)
  9. +0.92     #19 Michigan 80, #7 Michigan State 75 (Jan 25)
  10. +0.91     #19 Michigan 77, #5 Wisconsin 70 (Jan 18)

Top 10 #KPI Wins – NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of February 9, 2014)

  1. +0.82     #49 Xavier 64, #18 Cincinnati 47 (Dec 14)
  2. +0.77     #5 Wisconsin 63, #14 Saint Louis 57 (Nov 26)
  3. +0.73     #1 Kansas 80, #22 New Mexico 63 (Dec 14)
  4. +0.72     #3 Villanova 63, #1 Kansas 59 (Nov 29)
  5. +0.72     #10 Massachusetts 81, #22 New Mexico 65 (Nov 22)
  6. +0.72     #30 George Washington 60, #9 Creighton 53 (Dec 1)
  7. +0.71     #64 Georgetown 64, #7 Michigan State 60 (Feb 1)
  8. +0.70     #38 Kansas State 72, #23 Gonzaga 62 (Dec 21)
  9. +0.70     #56 Florida State 60, #10 Massachusetts 55 (Dec 21)
  10. +0.70     #80 Marquette 76, #30 George Washington 60 (Nov 29)

Top 10 #KPI Wins – HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of February 9, 2014)

  1. +0.72     #25 Louisville 69, #33 Southern Miss 38 (Nov 29)
  2. +0.69     #6 Syracuse 78, #3 Villanova 62 (Dec 28)
  3. +0.68     #45 SMU 76, #18 Cincinnati 55 (Feb 8)
  4. +0.67     #41 California 60, #2 Arizona 58 (Feb 1)
  5. +0.65     #5 Wisconsin 59, #8 Florida 53 (Nov 12)
  6. +0.65     #47 Tennessee 87, #17 Virginia 52 (Dec 30)
  7. +0.63     #22 New Mexico 63, #18 Cincinnati 54 (Dec 7)
  8. +0.62     #29 Connecticut 65, #8 Florida 64 (Dec 2)
  9. +0.62     #21 Texas 81, #1 Kansas 69 (Feb 1)
  10. +0.60     #21 Texas 72, #63 Stephen F. Austin 62 (Nov 15)

#KPI Numbers

  • The current adjustments are +0.17 for road teams, -0.17 for home teams and -0.05 for neutral site teams.
  • The average win is worth +0.19.  The average loss is worth -0.20.
  • Scoring (by conference, all games): 1-Big 12 (76.6 PPG); 2-Pac-12 (75.6 PPG); 3-WCC (75.3 PPG); 4-Ohio Valley (74.1 PPG); 5-Big South (73.9 PPG); t6-Big East (73.7 PPG); t6-American (73.7 PPG); 8-Horizon (72.9 PPG); 9-Southland (72.8 PPG); 10-WCC (75.3 PPG)
  • Scoring (by conference, conference games only): 1-Ohio Valley (75.0 PPG); 2-Big South (74.5 PPG); 3-Northeast (74.2 PPG); 4-Southland (73.9 PPG); 5-MAAC (73.6 PPG); 6-Big 12 (73.6 PPG); 7-WCC (72.2 PPG); 8-Atlantic Sun (71.5 PPG); 9-Pac-12 (70.9 PPG); 10-WAC (70.8 PPG)

#KPI Facts

  • Home teams are 2,784-1,186 (.701). There have been 352 games (8.1% of all games) played at a neutral site.  42.2% of all games are conference games to date.
  • Non-Conference #KPI: 1-Wisconsin; 2-Arizona; 3-Massachusetts; 4-Wichita State; 5-Kansas; 6-Oregon; 7-Ohio State; 8-Syracuse; 9-Villanova; 10-Iowa State
  • Conference #KPI: 1-Kansas; 2-Michigan; 3-Virginia; 4-Arizona; 5-Villanova; 6-Michigan State; 7-Saint Louis; 8-Syracuse; 9-Wichita State; 10-Florida
  • #KPI Only in Top-50 Games: 1-Northern Colorado (1-0); 2-Wichita State (2-0); 3-Arizona (8-1); 4-San Diego State (2-1); 5-Syracuse (6-0); 6-Creighton (5-2); 7-Villanova (4-2); 8-Cincinnati (5-3); 9-Michigan State (6-3); 10-Wisconsin (5-3)
  • #KPI Only in Top-100 Games: 1-Wichita State (6-0); 2-Arizona (12-1); 3-Syracuse (12-0); 4-Villanova (9-2); 5-San Diego State (8-1); 6-Kansas (15-5); 7-Cincinnati (8-3); 8-Saint Louis (6-2); 9-Michigan State (10-4); 10-Florida (8-2)
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule: 1-Kansas (.174); 2-Wisconsin (.129); 3-Duke (.114); 4-Iowa State (.113); 5-Michigan (.112); 6-Michigan State (.109); 7-Alabama (.107); 8-Northwestern (.107); 9-Georgetown (.105); 10-Kansas State (.102)
  • 9.9% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 416-14 (.967) in those games by a margin of 90.1 PPG to 60.6 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 345 in the #KPI).

#KPI Top Games This Week (February 10-16, 2014)

  1. #3 Villanova at #9 Creighton (Sunday 5 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
  2. #8 Florida at #16 Kentucky (Saturday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  3. #5 Wisconsin at #19 Michigan (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS)
  4. #19 Michigan at #11 Ohio State (Tuesday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  5. #6 Syracuse at #26 Pittsburgh (Wednesday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  6. #1 Kansas at #38 Kansas State (Monday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  7. #10 Massachusetts at #30 George Washington (Saturday 2 p.m. ET, Comcast/SNY)
  8. #2 Arizona at #40 Arizona State (Friday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  9. #28 VCU at #14 Saint Louis (Saturday 2 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  10. #15 Duke at #32 North Carolina (Wednesday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Notes on Rule Changes: Note that the discrepancy between #KPI and NCAA statistics is how games against Non Division-I schools are counted (approximately 4.9% of the data)

Points Per Game: Up 5.4% (3.6 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 71.1 PPG. Through February 2 of last season, teams were averaging 67.2 PPG (up 5.9% this year over the same time period). This is the highest scoring average since 2001-02 (71.26 PPG).  Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 2.3%.  In 2012-13, scoring decreased 0.9 PPG (1.3%) between non-conference and conference play.  In 2013-14, scoring has decreased 2.2 PPG (3.0%) from 72.0 PPG in non-conference to 69.9 PPG in conference.

In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.3% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.7% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.0% from made free throws.  The net increase is +1.15 points from made 2′s, +0.50 points from made 3′s and +1.96 points from made free throws.  In conference games only this year, 50.8% of points come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.9% from made 3′s and 22.3% from made free throws.

Average Margin Per Game: +13.8 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +13.8 PPG through the same period last season.  The average margin in non-conference play is 16.2 PPG compared to 10.5 PPG in conference play.  25% of games have been decided by 5 points or less, 23% of games by 6-10 points, 30% of games decided by 11-20 points and 21% decided by more than 20 points.

Possessions Per Game: Up 2.3% (1.6 possession per game); from 66.7 to 68.2 possessions per game per team.  Possessions are 2.6 possessions per game lower (down 3.8%) in conference play than non-conference play this year.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 1.6% (0.9 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 55.9 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 43.9%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goals made are up 3.1% (0.7 per game). Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 2002-03 (56.4 FGA/game).  Teams are attempting 2.3 fewer field goals in conference play than non-conference (down 4.0%), but FGAs are only down 0.2% per possession in conference play.

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 1.6% (0.3 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.4 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 34.4%, up from 34.1% last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since an all-time high in 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 13.9% (2.7 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 22.5 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 69.6% (69.3% last year).  Teams are making 2.0 more free throws per game this year (up 14.3%).  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1993-94 (23.2 FTA/game).  Free Throw Attempts fell from 23.5 in November to 21.9 in December, but rose to 22.3 per game in January.  Teams are averaging 21.8 FTAs in February.

Turnovers: Down 4.5% (0.6 turnovers per game); 13.3 to 12.7 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.7% while steals per possession are down 8.4%.  More plays that used to be steals/turnovers are being called fouls.

Personal Fouls: Up 9.3% (1.7 fouls per game); 17.7 to 19.4 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 2000-01 (19.92 fouls per game).  Fouls per possession are up 6.8%.  Fouls are down 2.2% per possession from non-conference to conference this season.

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

Overall data differs slightly from NCAA data due to inclusion of games involving Division-I teams vs. Non Division-I teams, currently 4.9% of the data.

This is the #KPI.

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