WEEK 11.5 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 1/24/14)

#KPI Headlines:

  • Creighton wins big at Villanova: Creighton’s win at Villanova is the best win on the board, worth +1.11 (passing North Carolina’s win at Michigan State).  Creighton’s 21 made 3’s were the most by any team this season.  This is a perfect example why margin needs some factor in rankings (#KPI computes factors it as a percentile of total points). Creighton is one of six teams to win a conference road game by 28 or more points (Mercer, Cleveland State, Virginia, Louisiana Tech and Louisville are the others).
  • #KPI in “Forde Minutes”: Thanks to Pat Forde for taking interest in the #KPI.
  • #KPI Debuts at Bracket Matrix: The 2014 Bracket Matrix (developed by the fine folks at The Bracket Project) have included the #KPI in their math this year. My 1-68 rankings are completely formula based, but I’m honored to be included.
  • Conference Scoring Down: In 2012-13, scoring fell 0.9 PPG (67.6 to 66.7 PPG) between non-conference and conference play.  So far in 2013-14, scoring has fallen 2.0 PPG (72.1 to 70.1 PPG) between non-conference and conference.  Possessions are down 2.6 per game this year between non-conference and conference games.
  • Fewest 3’s Attempted: Lamar attempted 2 3-pt shots Thursday at Abilene Christian, the fewest attempts in any Division-I game this year.  Three teams had attempted only three 3-pt shots in a game.

#KPI by Team (through January 23): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-thru-jan-23.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through January 23): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-thru-jan-23.pdf

#KPI by Game (through January 23): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-thru-jan-23.pdf

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season through Sunday, January 23: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-1-23-14.pdf

#KPI Basketball Field of 68 (through games of January 23, 2014): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined (for now) by best conference record, then best overall record, then best #KPI.

  1. BIG 12 / #1 Kansas (14-4, 5-0 Big 12), .394
  2. PAC-12 / #2 Arizona (19-0, 6-0 Pac-12), .393
  3. BIG TEN / #3 Michigan State (18-1, 7-0 Big Ten), .361
  4. #4 Wisconsin (16-3, 3-3 Big Ten), .348
  5. MVC / #5 Wichita State (20-0, 7-0 MVC), .336
  6. #6 Villanova (16-2, 5-1 Big East), .333
  7. #7 Massachusetts (16-2, 3-1 Atlantic 10), .322
  8. ACC / #8 Syracuse (18-0, 5-0 ACC), .315
  9. BIG EAST / #9 Creighton (16-3, 6-1 Big East), .306
  10. SEC / #10 Florida (16-2, 5-0 SEC), .275
  11. #11 Oklahoma State (15-3, 3-2 Big 12), .267
  12. MOUNTAIN WEST / #12 San Diego State (17-1, 6-0 Mountain West), .260
  13. #13 Iowa State (14-3, 2-3 Big 12), .259
  14. #14 Ohio State (16-4, 3-4 Big Ten), .255
  15. #15 Kentucky (14-4, 4-1 SEC), .255
  16. #16 Virginia (14-5, 5-1 ACC), .253
  17. #17 Michigan (14-4, 6-0 Big Ten), .253
  18. #18 George Washington (15-3, 3-1 Atlantic 10), .247
  19. AMERICAN / #19 Cincinnati (18-2, 7-0 American), .246
  20. #20 Duke (15-4, 4-2 ACC), .243
  21. #21 Pittsburgh (17-2, 5-1 ACC), .243
  22. #22 Louisville (17-3, 6-1 American), .243
  23. #23 Oklahoma (15-4, 4-2 Big 12), .241
  24. #24 Florida State (13-5, 4-2 ACC), .238
  25. #25 UCLA (15-4, 4-2 Pac-12), .227
  26. #26 New Mexico (14-4, 5-1 Mountain West), .226
  27. ATLANTIC 10 / #27 Saint Louis (18-2, 5-0 Atlantic 10), .223
  28. #28 Connecticut (15-4, 3-3 American), .222
  29. WEST COAST / #29 Gonzaga (17-3, 7-1 WCC), .221
  30. #30 Oregon (13-5, 1-5 Pac-12), .219
  31. #31 Colorado (15-5, 4-3 Pac-12), .217
  32. #32 VCU (15-4, 3-1 Atlantic 10), .214
  33. #33 Texas (15-4, 4-2 Big 12), .213
  34. #34 Xavier (15-4, 5-1 Big East), .212
  35. #35 Minnesota (15-5, 4-3 Big Ten), .212
  36. CONFERENCE USA / #36 Southern Miss (17-3, 4-1 C-USA), .212
  37. #37 Iowa (15-4, 4-2 Big Ten), .211
  38. #38 Kansas State (14-5, 4-2 Big 12), .207
  39. #39 Memphis (14-4, 4-2 American), .203
  40. #40 California (14-5, 5-1 Pac-12), .200
  41. MAC / #41 Toledo (16-2, 4-1 MAC), .195
  42. #42 Dayton (13-5, 1-3 Atlantic 10), .183
  43. #43 Tennessee (12-6, 3-2 SEC), .180
  44. #44 Stanford (12-6, 3-3 Pac-12), .176
  45. HORIZON / #45 Green Bay (16-3, 6-0 Horizon), .176
  46. #46 St. Mary’s-CA (15-5, 5-2 WCC), .174
  47. #47 Missouri (14-4, 2-3 SEC), .167
  48. #48 North Carolina (11-7, 1-4 ACC), .167
  49. SUMMIT / #49 North Dakota State (14-5, 3-1 Summit), .163
  50. #50 BYU (13-8, 5-3 WCC), .163
  51. #51 SMU (15-4, 4-2 American), .162
  52. IVY / #53 Harvard (14-3, 1-0 Ivy), .159
  53. SOUTHLAND / #64 Stephen F. Austin (17-2, 6-0 Southland), .128
  54. OHIO VALLEY / #68 Belmont (15-7, 6-1 OVC), .121
  55. ATLANTIC SUN / #75 Mercer (16-5, 7-1 Atlantic Sun), .107
  56. COLONIAL / #85 Delaware (13-7, 5-0 Colonial), .097
  57. SUN BELT / #96 Georgia State (13-6, 6-0 Sun Belt), .084
  58. BIG SKY / #105 Northern Colorado (12-4, 6-1 Big Sky), .076
  59. BIG WEST / #129 UC-Irvine (13-7, 4-0 Big West), .050
  60. PATRIOT / #145 American (11-7, 7-0 Patriot), .033
  61. MAAC / #149 Canisius (13-7, 7-2 MAAC), .028
  62. AMERICA EAST / #151 Stony Brook (13-6, 5-0 America East), .027
  63. WAC / #152 Utah Valley (11-7, 5-0 WAC), .022
  64. NORTHEAST / #157 Robert Morris (10-10, 5-0 Northeast), .014
  65. BIG SOUTH / #181 UNC-Asheville (10-9, 4-1 Big South), -.002
  66. SWAC / #198 Southern U. (9-10, 5-1 SWAC), -.034
  67. SOUTHERN / #209 Chattanooga (13-8, 7-0 Southern), -.040
  68. MEAC / #287 Savannah State (7-12, 5-0 MEAC), -.113

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of January 23, 2014)

  1. Big 12 (130-54, .707 / 102-26, .797 Non-Conf) .185 KPI:
  2. Big Ten (161-70, .697 / 122-31, .797 Non-Conf) .177 KPI:
  3. Pac-12 (157-70, .692 / 119-32, .788 Non-Conf) .162 KPI:
  4. Big East (126-63, .667 / 94-31, .752 Non-Conf) .148 KPI:
  5. ACC (182-97, .652 / 138-53, .723 Non-Conf)  .140 KPI:
  6. SEC (160-87, .648 / 125-52, .706 Non-Conf) .122 KPI:
  7. Atlantic 10 (159-83, .657 / 130-54, .707 Non-Conf) .119 KPI:
  8. American (122-65, .652 / 91-34, .728 Non-Conf) .103 KPI:
  9. Mountain West (125-80, .610 / 91-46, .664 Non-Conf) .082 KPI:
  10. WCC (123-80, .606 / 83-40, .675 Non-Conf) .081 KPI:
  11. Missouri Valley (110-84, .567 / 75-49, .605 Non-Conf) .039 KPI:
  12. MAC (116-90, .563 / 86-60, .589 Non-Conf) .030 KPI:
  13. Horizon (98-88, .527 / 70-60, .538 Non-Conf) .007 KPI:
  14. Summit (80-75, .516 / 64-59, .520 Non-Conf) .007 KPI:
  15. Conference USA (168-135, .554 / 132-99, .571 Non-Conf) -.000 KPI:
  16. Sun Belt (90-92, .495 / 59-61, .492 Non-Conf) -.017 KPI:
  17. Colonial (81-92, .468 / 59-70, .457 Non-Conf) -.026 KPI:
  18. Big West (80-88, .476 / 60-68, .469 Non-Conf) -.033 KPI:
  19. Ivy (63-60, .512 / 59-56, .513 Non-Conf) -.036 KPI:
  20. MAAC (95-109, 466 / 48-62, .436 Non-Conf) -.038 KPI:
  21. Patriot (88-97, .476 / 53-62, .461 Non-Conf) -.050 KPI:
  22. WAC (79-93, .459 / 55-69, .444 Non-Conf) -.058 KPI:
  23. Atlantic Sun (92-110, .455 / 53-71, .427 Non-Conf) -.068 KPI:
  24. Ohio Valley (113-136, .454 / 71-94, .430 Non-Conf) -.069 KPI:
  25. Southland (115-139, .453 / 70-94, .427 Non-Conf) -.072 KPI:
  26. Big Sky (81-100, .448 / 43-62, .410 Non-Conf) -.074 KPI:
  27. Big South (104-125, .454 / 74-95, .438 Non-Conf) -.098 KPI:
  28. Southern (96-126, .432 / 63-93, .404 Non-Conf) -.104 KPI:
  29. SWAC (60-110, .353 / 33-83, .284 Non-Conf) -.111 KPI:
  30. Northeast (75-114, .397 / 50-89, .360 Non-Conf) -.113 KPI:
  31. MEAC (81-156, .342 / 48-123, .281 Non-Conf) -.123 KPI:
  32. America East (65-107, .378 / 38-80, .322 Non-Conf) -.128 KPI:

Top 10 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of January 23, 2014)

  1. +1.11     #9 Creighton 96, #6 Villanova 68 (Jan 20)
  2. +1.09     #48 North Carolina 79, #3 Michigan State 65 (Dec 4)
  3. +1.02     #2 Arizona 69, #12 San Diego State 60 (Nov 14)
  4. +0.97     #17 Michigan 77, #4 Wisconsin 70 (Jan 18)
  5. +0.96     #5 Wichita State 70, #27 Saint Louis 65 (Dec 1)
  6. +0.94     #12 San Diego State 61, #1 Kansas 57 (Jan 5)
  7. +0.93     #39 Memphis 73, #22 Louisville 67 (Jan 9)
  8. +0.91     #1 Kansas 77, #13 Iowa State 70 (Jan 13)
  9. +0.90     #37 Iowa 84, #14 Ohio State 74 (Jan 12)
  10. +0.88     #19 Cincinnati 69, #39 Memphis 53 (Jan 4)

Top 10 #KPI Wins – NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of January 23, 2014)

  1. +0.80     #34 Xavier 64, #19 Cincinnati 47 (Dec 14)
  2. +0.75     #24 Florida State 60, #7 Massachusetts 55 (Dec 21)
  3. +0.73     #4 Wisconsin 63, #27 Saint Louis 57 (Nov 26)
  4. +0.73     #18 George Washington 60, #9 Creighton 53 (Dec 1)
  5. +0.71     #84 Marquette 76, #18 George Washington 60 (Nov 29)
  6. +0.71     #6 Villanova 63, #1 Kansas 59 (Nov 29)
  7. +0.71     #12 San Diego State 86, #9 Creighton 80 (Nov 29)
  8. +0.70     #19 Cincinnati 44, #21 Pittsburgh 43 (Dec 17)
  9. +0.70     #48 North Carolina 93, #22 Louisville 84 (Nov 24)
  10. +0.70     #38 Kansas State 72, #29 Gonzaga 62 (Dec 21)

Top 10 #KPI Wins – HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of January 23, 2014)

  1. +0.68     #22 Louisville 69, #36 Southern Miss 38 (Nov 29)
  2. +0.67     #8 Syracuse 78, #6 Villanova 62 (Dec 28)
  3. +0.63     #35 Minnesota 81, #4 Wisconsin 68 (Jan 22)
  4. +0.63     #4 Wisconsin 59, #10 Florida 53 (Nov 12)
  5. +0.62     #26 New Mexico 63, #19 Cincinnati 54 (Dec 7)
  6. +0.62     #57 Richmond 58, #7 Massachusetts 55 (Jan 22)
  7. +0.61     #56 Providence 81, #9 Creighton 68 (Jan 18)
  8. +0.60     #8 Syracuse 59, #21 Pittsburgh 54 (Jan 18)
  9. +0.60     #28 Connecticut 65, #10 Florida 64 (Dec 2)
  10. +0.60     #10 Florida 67, #1 Kansas 61 (Dec 10)

#KPI Numbers

  • The current adjustments are +0.17 for road teams, -0.18 for home teams and -0.06 for neutral site teams.
  • The average win is worth +0.18.  The average loss is worth -0.19.
  • Scoring (by conference, all games): 1-Big 12 (77.4 PPG); 2-Pac-12 (76.6 PPG); 3-WCC (76.5 PPG); 4-Big East (75.0 PPG); 5-Big Ten (74.4 PPG); 6-American (74.2 PPG); 7-Big South (73.9 PPG); 8-SEC (73.6 PPG); 9-Horizon (73.6 PPG); 10-Mountain West (73.4 PPG)
  • Scoring (by conference, conference games only): 1-Northeast (75.1 PPG); 2-Big South (75.1 PPG); 3-Southland (74.9 PPG); 4-MAAC (74.2 PPG); 5-Big 12 (73.6 PPG); 6-Ohio Valley (73.4 PPG); 7-WCC (73.0 PPG); 8-Big East (72.7 PPG); 9-Southern (72.6 PPG); 10-Atlantic Sun (71.6 PPG)

#KPI Facts

  • Home teams are 2257-889 (.717). There have been 351 games (10.0% of all games) played at a neutral site.  29.1% of all games are conference games to date.
  • Non-Conference #KPI: 1-Wisconsin; 2-Arizona; 3-Massachusetts; 4-Wichita State; 5-Villanova; 6-Syracuse; 7-Ohio State; 8-Oregon; 9-Iowa State; 10-Kansas
  • Conference #KPI: 1-Kansas; 2-Michigan; 3-Michigan State; 4-Virginia; 5-Arizona; 6-Creighton; 7-Penn; 8-California; 9-Pittsburgh; 10-Oklahoma
  • #KPI Only in Top-50 Games: 1-Arizona; 2-Northern Colorado; 3-Wichita State; 4-Syracuse; 5-San Diego State; 6-Missouri; 7-Michigan State; 8-Wisconsin; 9-Kansas; 10-Michigan
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule: 1-Kansas (.176); 2-Wisconsin (.114); 3-Kentucky (.106); 4-Colorado (.106); 5-Michigan (.102); 6-Duke (.102); 7-Florida State (.101); 8-Alabama (.098); 9-Oklahoma (.098); 10-North Carolina (.098)
  • 12.1% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 410-14 (.967) in those games by a margin of 90.1 PPG to 60.7 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 345 in the #KPI).

#KPI Top 10 Games This Week (January 20-26, 2014

  1. #23 Michigan at #5 Michigan State (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  2. #24 Florida State at #20 Duke (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  3. #32 Kansas State at #11 Iowa State (Saturday 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Full Court/Big 12 Network)
  4. #43 Tennessee at #10 Florida (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  5. #40 California at #25 UCLA (Sunday 8 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Overall data differs slightly from NCAA data due to inclusion of games involving Division-I teams vs. Non Division-I teams.  As more D-I vs. D-I games are played, the included data is further diluted.

This is the #KPI.

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