WEEK 10 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 1/13/14)

Welcome to Week 10 of the #KPI.

Had a good discussion on Twitter about it being too early for rankings (https://twitter.com/KPIsports/status/420325195400753153).  As I tweeted, it’s a valid point and one with which I agree.  That said, with conference play starting and more than half of all games played, the data is developing and making more sense with each passing day.

#KPI by Team (through January 12: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-week-10.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through January 12): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-10.pdf

#KPI by Game (through January 12): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-week-10.pdf

#KPI Basketball Field of 68 (through games of January 12, 2014): Automatic bids from the 32 conferences are determined (for now) by best conference record, then best overall record, then best #KPI

  1. #1 Wisconsin (16-0, 3-0 Big Ten), .416
  2. PAC-12 / #2 Arizona (17-0, 4-0 Pac-12), .372
  3. ATLANTIC 10 / #3 Massachusetts (14-1, 2-0 Atlantic 10), .357
  4. BIG EAST / #4 Villanova (15-1, 4-0 Big East), .355
  5. BIG TEN / #5 Michigan State (15-1, 4-0 Big Ten), .341
  6. ACC / #6 Syracuse (16-0, 3-0 ACC), .336
  7. BIG 12 / #7 Kansas (11-4, 2-0 Big 12), .334
  8. MVC / #8 Wichita State (17-0, 4-0 MVC), .318
  9. #9 Iowa State (14-1, 2-1 Big 12), .309
  10. #10 Oklahoma State (14-2, 2-1 Big 12), .304
  11. SEC / #11 Florida (13-2, 2-0 SEC), .280
  12. #12 San Diego State (14-1, 3-0 Mountain West), .275
  13. #13 Creighton (14-2, 4-0 Big East), .271
  14. AMERICAN / #14 Cincinnati (15-2, 4-0 American), .261
  15. #15 Virginia (12-4, 3-0 ACC), .261
  16. #16 Ohio State (15-2, 2-2 Big Ten), .259
  17. #17 Oregon (13-3, 1-3 Pac-12), .257
  18. #18 Colorado (14-3, 3-1 Pac-12), .248
  19. #19 Kentucky (12-3, 2-0 SEC), .242
  20. #20 New Mexico (12-3, 3-0 Mountain West), .241
  21. #21 Memphis (12-3, 3-1 American), .238
  22. #22 Pittsburgh (15-1, 3-0 ACC), .234
  23. #23 Florida State (11-4, 2-1 ACC), .233
  24. #24 Connecticut (13-3, 1-2 American), .224
  25. #25 Oklahoma (13-3, 2-1 Big 12), .220
  26. #26 California (12-4, 3-0 Pac-12), .218
  27. #27 Iowa (14-3, 3-1 Big Ten), .216
  28. #28 Dayton (12-4, 0-1 Atlantic 10), .215
  29. #29 Baylor (13-2, 1-1 Big 12), .215
  30. #30 George Washington (13-3, 1-1 Atlantic 10), .211
  31. WEST COAST / #31 Gonzaga (14-3, 4-1 WCC), .210
  32. #32 Missouri (13-2, 1-1 SEC), .207
  33. #33 VCU (13-3, 1-0 Atlantic 10), .204
  34. #34 Saint Louis (15-2, 2-0 Atlantic 10), .201
  35. #35 Louisville (14-3, 3-1 American), .194
  36. #36 Southern Miss (14-3, 1-1 Conference USA), .191
  37. #37 Kansas State (12-4, 2-1 Big 12), .190
  38. IVY / #38 Harvard (14-2, 1-0 Ivy), .184
  39. #39 Xavier (13-4, 3-1 Big East), .182
  40. #40 Duke (12-4, 1-2 ACC), .182
  41. #41 Stanford (10-5, 1-2 Pac-12), .181
  42. #42 Tennessee (10-5, 1-1 SEC), .181
  43. #43 UCLA (13-3, 2-1 Pac-12), .180
  44. HORIZON / #44 Green Bay (13-3, 3-0 Horizon), .179
  45. #45 North Carolina (10-6, 0-3 ACC), .179
  46. #46 St. Mary’s-CA (13-5, 3-2 WCC), .178
  47. WAC / #47 New Mexico State (14-5, 3-0 WAC), .177
  48. #48 Michigan (11-4, 3-0 Big Ten), .175
  49. #49 SMU (11-4, 1-2 American), .173
  50. MAAC / #53 Manhattan (12-3, 5-1 MAAC), .155
  51. CONFERENCE USA / #64 Louisiana Tech (14-3, 2-0 Conference USA), .131
  52. OVC / #66 Belmont (12-6, 4-0 OVC), .125
  53. MAC / #72 Akron (10-5, 2-0 MAC), .108
  54. SOUTHLAND / #76 Stephen F. Austin (15-2, 4-0 Southland), .106
  55. PATRIOT / #93 Boston U. (11-6, 4-0 Patriot), .087
  56. ATLANTIC SUN / #100 Mercer (13-5, 4-1 Atlantic Sun), .082
  57. BIG SKY / #108 Northern Colorado (10-3, 4-0 Big Sky), .071
  58. COLONIAL / #111 Delaware (10-7, 2-0 Colonial), .069
  59. MOUNTAIN WEST / #114 Nevada (9-8, 4-0 Mountain West), .060
  60. BIG WEST / #115 UC-Irvine (11-7, 2-0 Big West), .059
  61. SUN BELT / #121 Georgia State (10-6, 3-0 Sun Belt), .052
  62. SUMMIT / #143 IPFW (14-5, 2-0 Summit), .032
  63. AMERICA EAST / #158 Stony Brook (10-6, 2-0 America East), .017
  64. BIG SOUTH / #178 Radford (12-5, 2-0 Big South), -.002
  65. SWAC / #215 Southern U. (7-9, 3-0 SWAC), -.035
  66. MEAC / #243 Norfolk State (9-7, 3-0 MEAC), -.063
  67. SOUTHERN / #258 Chattanooga (10-8, 4-0 Southern), -.076
  68. NORTHEAST / #271 Wagner (8-7, 2-0 Northeast), -.092

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of January 12, 2014)

  1. Big 12 (116-40, .744 / 102-26, .797 Non-Conf) .185 KPI:
  2. Big Ten (144-53, .731 / 122-31, .797 Non-Conf) .170 KPI:
  3. Pac-12 (141-54, .723 / 119-32, .788 Non-Conf) .161 KPI:
  4. ACC (161-76, .679 / 138-53, .723 Non-Conf)  .144 KPI:
  5. Big East (112-50, .691 / 93-31, .750 Non-Conf) .142 KPI:
  6. SEC (139-66, .678 / 125-52, .706 Non-Conf) .122 KPI:
  7. Atlantic 10 (139-66, .678 / 127-54, .702 Non-Conf) .117 KPI:
  8. American (106-50, .679 / 89-33, .730 Non-Conf) .106 KPI:
  9. Mountain West (110-65, .629 / 91-46, .664 Non-Conf) .084 KPI:
  10. WCC (110-67, .621 / 83-40, .675 Non-Conf) .083 KPI:
  11. Missouri Valley (95-69, .579 / 75-49, .605 Non-Conf) .043 KPI:
  12. MAC (98-72, .576 / 86-60, .589 Non-Conf) .030 KPI:
  13. Horizon (85-75, .531 / 70-60, .538 Non-Conf) .009 KPI:
  14. Summit (70-65, .519 / 64-59, .520 Non-Conf) .001 KPI:
  15. Conference USA (145-113, .562 / 131-99, .570 Non-Conf) -.006 KPI:
  16. Big West (68-76, .472 / 60-68, .469 Non-Conf) -.014 KPI:
  17. Sun Belt (76-78, .494 / 59-61, .492 Non-Conf) -.018 KPI:
  18. Colonial (68-78, .466 / 59-69, .461 Non-Conf) -.023 KPI:
  19. Ivy (61-55, .526 / 59-53, .527 Non-Conf) -.035 KPI:
  20. MAAC (81-94, 463 / 48-61, .440 Non-Conf) -.036 KPI:
  21. WAC (68-82, .453 / 55-69, .444 Non-Conf) -.050 KPI:
  22. Patriot (73-82, .471 / 53-62, .461 Non-Conf) -.052 KPI:
  23. Atlantic Sun (79-97, .449 / 53-71, .427 Non-Conf) -.065 KPI:
  24. Ohio Valley (94-118, .443 / 70-94, .427 Non-Conf) -.068 KPI:
  25. Big Sky (64-83, .435 / 43-62, .410 Non-Conf) -.068 KPI:
  26. Southland (95-119, .444 / 70-94, .427 Non-Conf) -.069 KPI:
  27. Big South (86-107, .446 / 74-95, .438 Non-Conf) -.089 KPI:
  28. SWAC (47-97, .326 / 33-83, .284 Non-Conf) -.096 KPI:
  29. Southern (81-110, .424 / 63-92, .406 Non-Conf) -.103 KPI:
  30. Northeast (60-99, .377 / 50-89, .360 Non-Conf) -.115 KPI:
  31. MEAC (62-139, .308 / 46-123, .272 Non-Conf) -.115 KPI:
  32. America East (50-92, .352 / 38-80, .322 Non-Conf) -.132 KPI:

Top 10 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of January 12, 2014)

  1. +1.08     12/4       #45 North Carolina 79, #5 Michigan State 65
  2. +1.04     11/14     #2 Arizona 69, #12 San Diego State 60
  3. +0.98     1/12       #27 Iowa 84, #16 Ohio State 74
  4. +0.98     1/4         #14 Cincinnati 69, #21 Memphis 53
  5. +0.95     12/1       #8 Wichita State 70, #34 Saint Louis 65
  6. +0.91     1/9         #26 California 96, #17 Oregon 83
  7. +0.91     12/4       #1 Wisconsin 48, #15 Virginia 38
  8. +0.91     1/5         #12 San Diego State 61, #7 Kansas 57
  9. +0.90     1/8         #151 Georgia 70, #32 Missouri 64 (OT)
  10. +0.89     12/17     #47 New Mexico State 67, #20 New Mexico 61

Top 10 #KPI Wins – NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of January 12, 2014)

  1. +0.78     12/14     #39 Xavier 64, #14 Cincinnati 47
  2. +0.78     12/21     #23 Florida State 60, #3 Massachusetts 55
  3. +0.72     12/1       #30 George Washington 60, #13 Creighton 53
  4. +0.72     12/1       #21 Memphis 73, #10 Oklahoma State 68
  5. +0.71     11/26     #1 Wisconsin 63, #34 Saint Louis 57
  6. +0.71     12/17     #14 Cincinnati 44, #22 Pittsburgh 43
  7. +0.71     11/8       #29 Baylor 72, #18 Colorado 60
  8. +0.71     11/29     #12 San Diego State 86, #13 Creighton 80
  9. +0.70     12/14     #7 Kansas 80, #20 New Mexico 63
  10. +0.69     11/22     #3 Massachusetts 81, #20 New Mexico 65

Top 10 #KPI Wins – HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of January 5, 2014)

  1. +0.70     12/28     #6 Syracuse 78, #4 Villanova 62
  2. +0.64     11/29     #35 Louisville 69, #36 Southern Miss 38
  3. +0.63     1/11       #25 Oklahoma 87, #9 Iowa State 82
  4. +0.61     11/12     #1 Wisconsin 59, #11 Florida 53
  5. +0.60     1/12       #79 Washington 71, #18 Colorado 54
  6. +0.60     12/7       #20 New Mexico 63, #14 Cincinnati 54
  7. +0.59     12/30     #42 Tennessee 87, #15 Virginia 52
  8. +0.59     1/7         #9 Iowa State 87, #29 Baylor 72
  9. +0.59     1/4         #37 Kansas State 74, #10 Oklahoma State 71
  10. +0.58     1/7         #5 Michigan State 72, #16 Ohio State 68 (OT)

#KPI Numbers

  • The current adjustments are +0.18 for road teams, -0.19 for home teams and -0.07 for neutral site teams.
  • The average win is worth +0.17.  The average loss is worth -0.19.
  • Scoring (by conference, all games): 1-Big 12 (78.4 PPG); 2-Pac-12 (77.5 PPG); 3-WCC (76.6 PPG); 4-Big Ten (75.9 PPG); 5-American (75.4 PPG); 6-Big East (75.2 PPG); 7-Horizon (74.4 PPG); 8-Mountain West (74.3 PPG); 9-SEC (74.2 PPG); 10-Conference USA (73.8 PPG)
  • Scoring (by conference, conference games only): 1-Southland (76.9 PPG); 2-Big 12 (75.6 PPG); 3-MAAC (75.3 PPG); 4-Big South (74.5 PPG); 5-Northeast (74.4 PPG); 6-Ohio Valley (73.9 PPG); 7-Conference USA (73.7 PPG); 8-Summit (73.4 PPG); 9-WAC (73.3 PPG); 10-Colonial (72.9 PPG)
  • Free Throw Attempts/Game (by conference, conference games only): 1-Southland (28.5 FTA/G); 2-MAAC (27.0 FTA/G); 3-Colonial (26.9 FTA/G); 4-MAC (25.0 FTA/G); 5-Conference USA (24.9 FTA/G); 6-Ohio Valley (24.5 FTA/G); 7-WAC (24.3 FTA/G); 8-Atlantic 10 (24.1 FTA/G); 9-MEAC (24.1 FTA/G); 10-SEC (23.8 FTA/G)
  • Fewest Personal Fouls/Game (by conference, conference games only): 1-Big West (16.6 PF/G); 2-Northeast (16.8 PF/G); 3-ACC (16.9 PF/G); 4-Summit (17.2 PF/G); 5-Mountain West (17.6 PF/G)
  • Most Personal Fouls/Game (by conference, conference games only): 1-Southland (22.3 PF/G); 2-MAAC (21.7 PF/G); 3-Colonial (21.4 PF/G); 4-MAC (21.0 PF/G); 5-WAC (20.8 PF/G)

#KPI Facts

  • Home teams are 1957-698 (.737), including a 189-140 record in Week 10 (.574).  There have been 350 games (11.6% of all games) played at a neutral site.  17.8% of all games are conference games to date.
  • There are 6 teams currently undefeated in road/neutral games: Michigan State, Wichita State and San Diego State are 7-0, Wisconsin, Arizona and Syracuse are 6-0.
  • Manhattan leads the country with 9 road/neutral wins.  Southern Miss, Harvard and Milwaukee have 8 each.
  • Wisconsin, Arizona and Kansas have 5 wins apiece vs. the #KPI top-50.  Wisconsin and Arizona are 5-0, Kansas is 5-4 (nobody else has PLAYED more than 7 top-50 games).  Syracuse has 4 top-50 wins.
  • Non-Conference #KPI: 1-Wisconsin; 2-Massachusetts; 3-Arizona; 4-Syracuse; 5-Oregon; 6-Wichita State; 7-Villanova; 8-Iowa State; 9-Oklahoma State; 10-Kansas
  • Conference #KPI: 1-Virginia; 2-California; 3-Kansas; 4-Saint Louis; 5-Michigan State; 6-Texas A&M; 7-Georgia; 8-Cal Poly; 9-Old Dominion; 10-Cincinnati
  • #KPI Only in Top-50 Games: 1-Arizona; 2-Wisconsin; 3-Wichita State; 4-Syracuse; 5-North Carolina; 6-San Diego State; 7-Missouri; 8-Villanova; 9-Kansas State; 10-Michigan State
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule: 1-Kansas (by a LANDSLIDE); 2-Florida; 3-Wisconsin; 4-Virginia; 5-Kentucky; 6-Massachusetts; 7-North Carolina; 8-Colorado; 9-Oregon; 10-St. John’s
  • #KPI Remaining Games Strength of Schedule: 1-West Virginia; 2-TCU; 3-Texas Tech; 4-Michigan; 5-Illinois; 6-Arizona State; 7-Texas; 8-Iowa; 9-Utah; 10-Baylor
  • 14.0% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 408-14 (.967) in those games by a margin of 90.1 PPG to 60.6 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 342 in the #KPI).

#KPI Top 10 Games This Week

  1. #7 Kansas at #9 Iowa State (Monday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  2. #10 Oklahoma State at #7 Kansas (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, CBS)
  3. #22 Pittsburgh at #6 Syracuse (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  4. #23 Florida State at #15 Virginia (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN Full Court/ACC Network)
  5. #24 Connecticut at #21 Memphis (Thursday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  6. #48 Michigan at #1 Wisconsin (Saturday 6 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  7. #25 Oklahoma at #29 Baylor (Saturday 2 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  8. #15 Virginia at #40 Duke (Monday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  9. #54 Arizona State at #2 Arizona (Thursday 9 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
  10. #5 Michigan State at #52 Illinois (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, BTN)

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season by day, week and margin through Sunday, January 12: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-1-12-14.pdf

Notes on Rule Changes:

  • Per Possession Data is critical.  Points are up 2.8% per possession, fouls up 6.5% per possession and free throw attempts up 11.3% per possession.  Possessions per game are up 3.6% (2.4 per team, per game).
  • 22.8% of games have been decided by 5 points or less, 21.5% of games by 6-10 points, 30.0% of games decided by 11-20 points and 25.8% decided by more than 20 points.  In Week 10 (Jan 6-12), 33% of games were decided by 5 points or less and 60% of games were decided by 10 points or less.
  • With conference play now underway in all 32 leagues, points increased (to 70.98 PPG, highest weekly total since Week 5, 71.03 PPG), personal fouls increased (to 19.4 PF/G, highest weekly total since Week 3, 19.9 PF/G) and free throw attempts increased (to 22.8 FTA/G, highest weekly total since Week 3, 23.3 FTA/G).  The 1.050 points per possession in Week 10 was the second most efficient of the season, behind only Week 4 (Nov 25-Dec 1).

Points Per Game: Up 6.4% (4.3 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 71.8 PPG. Through January 13 of last season, teams were averaging 67.4 PPG (up 6.5% this year over the same time period). 71.8 PPG is the highest average since 1995-96 (72.5 PPG).  Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 2.8%.  Teams averaged 73.2 PPG in November, 70.7 PPG in December and 70.8 PPG in January.

In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.4% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.6% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.0% from made free throws.  The net increase is +1.66 points from made 2′s, +0.60 points from made 3′s and +2.07 points from made free throws.  In conference games only this year, 50.8% of points come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.6% from made 3’s and 22.6% from made free throws.

Average Margin Per Game: +15.2 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +14.9 PPG through the same period last season.  The average margin in non-conference play is 17.1 PPG compared to 10.8 PPG in conference play.

Possessions Per Game: Up 3.6% (2.4 possession per game); from 66.7 to 69.1 possessions per game per team.  Possessions are 1.8 possessions per game lower in conference play than non-conference play this year.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 2.9% (1.6 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 56.6 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 43.9%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goals made are up 4.6%. Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 2001-02 (57.23 FGA/game).  Teams are attempting 1.7 fewer field goals in conference play than non-conference.

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 2.8% (0.5 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.6 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 34.1%, down from 34.2% last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since an all-time high in 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 15.2% (3.0 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 22.8 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 69.3% (69.3% last year).  Teams are making 2.1 more free throws per game this year.  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1993-94 (23.2 FTA/game).  Free Throw Attempts fell from 23.5 in November to 21.9 in December, but have risen to 22.6 per game so far in January.

Assists: Up 1.0% (0.1 assists per game); from 12.8 to 13.0 assists: Assists per possession are down 2.5% partly because an assist is not attached to a made free throw.

Turnovers: Down 3.1% (0.4 turnovers per game); 13.3 to 12.9 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.4% while steals per possession are down 8.2%.  More plays that used to be steals/turnovers are being called fouls.  Turnovers (12.2 per game) and steals (6.0 per game) were at weekly lows in Week 10 (Jan 6-12).

Personal Fouls: Up 10.3% (1.8 fouls per game); 17.7 to 19.5 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 2000-01 (19.92 fouls per game).  Fouls per possession are up 6.5%.  Total fouls called trended downward the first eight weeks this season (21.2, 20.5, 19.9, 19.3, 19.2, 19.1, 18.9, 18.5) before week to week increases in both Week 9 (18.9) and Week 10 (19.4).

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

This is the #KPI

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