WEEK 9 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 1/6/14)

Welcome to Week 9 of the #KPI.  Conference play has now begun and as a result numbers are starting to better match logic.

#KPI by Team (through January 5): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-week-9.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through January 5): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-9.pdf

#KPI by Game (through January 5): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-week-9.pdf

#KPI Basketball Top 50 (through games of January 5, 2014)

  1. Wisconsin (15-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .393
  2. Massachusetts (12-1, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .346
  3. Syracuse (14-0, 1-0 ACC), .335
  4. Michigan State (13-1, 2-0 Big Ten), .326
  5. Arizona (15-0, 2-0 Pac-12), .325
  6. Villanova (13-1, 2-0 Big East), .323
  7. Ohio State (15-0, 2-0 Big Ten), .319
  8. Iowa State (13-0, 1-0 Big 12), .318
  9. Oregon (13-1, 1-1 Pac-12), .306
  10. Kansas (9-4, 0-0 Big 12), .290
  11. Colorado (13-2, 2-0 Pac-12), .273
  12. Wichita State (15-0, 2-0 MVC), .272
  13. Oklahoma State (12-2, 0-1 Big 12), .268
  14. Cincinnati (13-2, 2-0 American), .253
  15. San Diego State (12-1, 1-0 Mountain West), .252
  16. Creighton (12-2, 2-0 Big East), .240
  17. Gonzaga (14-2, 4-0 WCC), .236
  18. Dayton (12-3, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .231
  19. Missouri (12-1, 0-0 SEC), .230
  20. Baylor (12-1, 0-0 Big 12), .228
  21. Florida (11-2, 0-0 SEC), .226
  22. Pittsburgh (13-1, 1-0 ACC), .224
  23. St. Mary’s-CA (11-4, 2-1 WCC), .222
  24. Illinois (13-2, 2-0 Big Ten), .222
  25. George Washington (12-2, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .215
  26. Xavier (12-3, 2-0 Big East), .215
  27. Southern Miss (13-2, 0-0 Conference USA), .215
  28. New Mexico (10-3, 1-0 Mountain West), .214
  29. Harvard (13-1, 0-0 Ivy), .210
  30. Oklahoma (12-2, 1-0 Big 12), .207
  31. North Carolina (10-4, 0-1 ACC), .204
  32. Kentucky (10-3, 0-0 SEC), .204
  33. Toledo (12-1, 0-0 MAC), .199
  34. Memphis (10-3, 1-1 American), .197
  35. Louisville (13-2, 2-0 American), .197
  36. Iowa (12-3, 1-1 Big Ten), .194
  37. VCU (12-3, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .191
  38. Virginia (10-4, 1-0 ACC), .191
  39. New Mexico State (12-5, 1-0 WAC), .184
  40. Connecticut (11-3, 0-2 American), .180
  41. North Dakota State (11-4, 0-0 Summit), .180
  42. Duke (11-3, 0-1 ACC), .178
  43. Texas (11-3, 0-1 Big 12), .178
  44. SMU (11-3, 1-1 American), .176
  45. Florida State (9-4, 0-1 ACC), .175
  46. Manhattan (11-2, 4-0 MAAC), .172
  47. Kansas State (11-3, 1-0 Big 12), .170
  48. Minnesota (12-3, 1-1 Big Ten), .167
  49. UCLA (12-2, 1-0 Pac-12), .167
  50. LSU (9-3, 0-0 SEC), .166

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of January 5, 2014)

  1. Big 12 (106-30, .797) .181 KPI: 30-24 record vs. #KPI top-100, best among conferences
  2. Big Ten (134-43, .757) .164 KPI: Averaging 11.1 turnovers per game, fewest among conferences
  3. Pac-12 (129-42, .754) .148 KPI: 101-9 home record (.918) is best among conferences
  4. Big East (103-41, .715) .136 KPI: 41.7% of games are against top-100 #KPI teams, best among conferences
  5. ACC (147-62, .703)  .135 KPI: Allowing 65.0 PPG defensively, best among conferences
  6. SEC (125-52, .706) .113 KPI: 100-14 record at home, 5-18 record at home, 20-20 on neutral court
  7. Atlantic 10 (127-54, .702) .111 KPI: 51-39 road/neutral record is 2nd best
  8. American (98-43, .695) .098 KPI: Leads conferences with 7.4 steals and 5.3 blocks per game
  9. Mountain West (100-55, .645) .084 KPI: 5th in free throw attempts (24.98 per game)
  10. WCC (100-58, .633) .081 KPI: 3rd in scoring (77.0 PPG) and 4th in FGA (57.8 FGA/G)
  11. Missouri Valley (85-59, .590) .042 KPI: Wichita State is No. 12 in the #KPI
  12. MAC (86-60, .589) .031 KPI: 62-15 (.805) home record is 9th best
  13. Horizon (77-68, .531) .009 KPI: 11-7 (.611) record on a neutral floor is 4th best
  14. Summit (64-59, .520) .003 KPI: With Ivy League, one of two conferences to have fewer than 9 members
  15. Conference USA (130-99, .568) -.005 KPI: Averaging 26.4 FTA per game, most of any conference
  16. Sun Belt (68-70, .493) -.010 KPI: 19.8 3-pt attempts per game is 3rd most among conferences
  17. Big West (60-68, .469) -.013 KPI: Opponent Win Percentage is .577, 4th best among conferences
  18. Colonial (60-70, .462) -.025 KPI: 21 true road wins, tied for 7th among conferences
  19. Ivy (53-50, .515) -.031 KPI: 8-2 record in neutral site games is best, .193 #KPI in neutral site games is 4th best
  20. WAC (61-74, .452) -.043 KPI: 3 wins against the #KPI top-100
  21. MAAC (68-81, 456) -.044 KPI: 70.3 possessions per game is 3rd most among conferences
  22. Patriot (63-72, .467) -.051 KPI: 20.3 3-pt attempts (and 7.2 makes) per game are most among conferences
  23. Big Sky (54-73, .425) -.059 KPI: 43-13 (.768) record in home games
  24. Southland (82-106, .436) -.061 KPI: 58.5 FGA/game is most among conferences
  25. Ohio Valley (84-107, .440) -.065 KPI: Averaging 7.2 steals per game, 2nd best among conferences
  26. Atlantic Sun (66-84, .440) -.067 KPI: 4 wins against the #KPI top-100
  27. Big South (73-95, .435) -.077 KPI: Despite losing record, outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per game
  28. SWAC (38-88, .302) -.086 KPI: 8-6 (.571) record in neutral site games is 8th best
  29. Southern (69-98, .413) -.101 KPI: 4th in 3-pt attempts per game (19.8 per game)
  30. MEAC (53-130, .290) -.110 KPI: Have played 106 road games (58% of all games)
  31. Northeast (50-89, .360) -.112 KPI: 2nd in 3-pt attempts per game (20.3 per game)
  32. America East (41-83, .331) -.131 KPI: Have played more road/neutral games (77) than home games (47)

Top 20 #KPI Wins – ROAD GAMES ONLY (through games of January 5, 2014)

  1. +1.08     12/4       #31 North Carolina 79, #4 Michigan State 65
  2. +1.02     11/14     #5 Arizona 69, #15 San Diego State 60
  3. +0.92     11/16     #25 George Washington 80, #46 Manhattan 74
  4. +0.91     11/26     #188 Fordham 79, #46 Manhattan 75
  5. +0.91     12/1       #12 Wichita State 70, #51 Saint Louis 65
  6. +0.90     1/4         #14 Cincinnati 69, #34 Memphis 53
  7. +0.89     12/30     #54 Louisiana Tech 102, #30 Oklahoma 98 (OT)
  8. +0.86     1/5         #15 San Diego State 61, #10 Kansas 57
  9. +0.85     12/4       #86 Louisiana-Lafayette 89, #54 Louisiana Tech 80
  10. +0.85     12/22     #80 USC 79, #18 Dayton 76 (OT)
  11. +0.84     12/4       #1 Wisconsin 48, #38 Virginia 38
  12. +0.83     12/21     #4 Michigan State 92, #43 Texas 78
  13. +0.82     12/17     #39 New Mexico State 67, #28 New Mexico 61
  14. +0.82     12/18     #2 Massachusetts 83, #66 Ohio 71
  15. +0.82     12/14     #23 St. Mary’s-CA 82, #60 Boise State 74
  16. +0.81     12/18     #65 Stanford 53, #40 Connecticut 51
  17. +0.80     1/2         #127 Washington 76, #63 Arizona State 65
  18. +0.80     1/2         #58 Michigan 63, #48 Minnesota 60
  19. +0.79     11/16     #56 Utah State 71, #53 UC-Santa Barbara 64
  20. +0.79     12/4       #28 New Mexico 79, #39 New Mexico State 70

Top 10 #KPI Wins – NEUTRAL SITE GAMES ONLY (through games of January 5, 2014)

  1. +0.76     12/21     #45 Florida State 60, #2 Massachusetts 55
  2. +0.75     11/8       #20 Baylor 72, #11 Colorado 60
  3. +0.74     12/14     #26 Xavier 64, #14 Cincinnati 47
  4. +0.71     12/21     #13 Oklahoma State 78, #11 Colorado 73
  5. +0.71     12/21     #47 Kansas State 72, #17 Gonzaga 62
  6. +0.71     11/27     #3 Syracuse 74, #20 Baylor 67
  7. +0.70     11/29     #91 Marquette 76, #25 George Washington 60
  8. +0.69     12/14     #9 Oregon 71, #24 Illinois 64
  9. +0.69     12/1       #34 Memphis 73, #13 Oklahoma State 68
  10. +0.69     12/1       #25 George Washington 60, #16 Creighton 53

Top 10 #KPI Wins – HOME GAMES ONLY (through games of January 5, 2014)

  1. +0.67     11/29     #35 Louisville 69, #27 Southern Miss 38
  2. +0.66     12/28     #3 Syracuse 78, #6 Villanova 62
  3. +0.63     1/5         #11 Colorado 100, #9 Oregon 91
  4. +0.59     11/24     #11 Colorado 70, #29 Harvard 62
  5. +0.58     12/30     #10 Kansas 93, #33 Toledo 83
  6. +0.58     12/31     #47 Kansas State 72, #25 George Washington 55
  7. +0.56     12/7       #28 New Mexico 63, #14 Cincinnati 54
  8. +0.56     11/12     #1 Wisconsin 59, #21 Florida 53
  9. +0.55     1/4         #47 Kansas State 74, #13 Oklahoma State 71
  10. +0.55     12/3       #81 Georgia Tech 67, #24 Illinois 64

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 15.8 points per game.  That margin is 16.5 points per game in home/away games, 10.9 points per game in neutral site games.
  • The current adjustments are +0.20 for road teams, -0.20 for home teams and -0.07 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The average win is worth +0.16.  The average loss is worth -0.18.
  • Scoring (by conference): 1-Big 12 (78.8 PPG); 2-Pac-12 (78.3 PPG); 3-WCC (77.0 PPG); 4-Big Ten (76.4 PPG); 5-American (76.1 PPG); 6-Mountain West (75.3 PPG); 7-SEC (75.3 PPG); 8-Big East (75.2 PPG); 9-Horizon (74.7 PPG); 10-ACC (73.8 PPG)
  • Points Against (by conference): 1-ACC (65.0 PPG); 2-Big Ten (65.1 PPG); 3-Big East (66.0 PPG); 4-SEC (66.1 PPG); 5-American (67.0 PPG); 6-Atlantic 10 (67.4 PPG); 7-Big 12 (67.5 PPG); 8-Pac-12 (68.0 PPG); 9-Mountain West (68.1 PPG); 10-MAC (68.5 PPG)
  • Points Per Possession (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (1.130); 2-Big 12 (1.127); 3-Big Ten (1.119); 4-WCC (1.113); 5-Mountain West (1.111)
  • Most Free Throw Attempts Per Game (by conference): 1-Conference USA (26.4); 2-Big 12 (26.1); 3-SEC (25.6); 4-MAAC (25.1); 5-Mountain West (24.8)
  • Fewest Free Throw Attempts Per Game (by conference): 1-Patriot (19.2); Big Sky (20.6); 3-Ivy (21.3); 4-Southern (21.3); 5-Big South (21.4)
  • Home teams are 1768-558 (.760).  There have been 349 games (13.0% of all games) played at a neutral site.  Teams are 320-1091 (.227) against #KPI top-100 teams
  • There are 9 teams currently undefeated in road/neutral games.  Manhattan (9-0), Michigan State (7-0), Wisconsin (6-0), Iowa State (6-0), Wichita State (6-0), San Diego State (6-0), Syracuse (4-0), Arizona (4-0) and Ohio State (3-0) are all undefeated.
  • Wisconsin has 8 wins vs. #KPI top-100 teams.  Massachusetts and Syracuse have 7 apiece and Arizona, Villanova, Ohio State, St. Mary’s-CA and Kentucky have 6 each.
  • Baylor, Kansas State, Arkansas and Texas A&M have not played a true road game.  All have played a minimum of 3 neutral site games.
  • Wins at Manhattan by George Washington and Fordham are currently valued so high because Manhattan is 11-2, No. 46 in the #KPI and 8-0 in true road games (compared to 2-2 in home games).

#KPI Top 10 Games This Week

  1. #7 Ohio State at #4 Michigan State (Tuesday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  2. #24 Illinois at #1 Wisconsin (Wednesday 9 p.m. ET, BTN)
  3. #20 Baylor at #8 Iowa State (Tuesday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  4. #31 North Carolina at #3 Syracuse (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  5. #8 Iowa State at #30 Oklahoma (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  6. #10 Kansas at #30 Oklahoma (Wednesday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  7. #26 Xavier at #16 Creighton (Sunday 3 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network)
  8. #36 Iowa at #7 Ohio State (Sunday 1:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  9. #48 Minnesota at #4 Michigan State (Saturday 2:15 p.m. ET, BTN)
  10. #5 Arizona at #49 UCLA (Thursday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season by day, week and margin through Sunday, January 5: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-1-5-14.pdf

#KPI Notes:

  • Per Possession Data is critical.  Points are up 2.7% per possession, fouls up 6.3% per possession and free throw attempts up 10.9% per possession.  Possessions per game are up 3.8% (2.6 per team, per game).
  • 21.5% of games have been decided by 5 points or less, 20.8% of games by 6-10 points, 30.4% of games decided by 11-20 points and 27.3% decided by more than 20 points.
  • Teams are averaging 20.0 fouls and 23.5 free throw attempts in games decided by 5 points or less.  Teams are averaging 18.6 fouls and 21.4 free throw attempts in games decided by more than 20 points.  Closer games mean more fouls and more free throws.
  • Scoring was down in December: https://kpisports.wordpress.com/2014/01/02/kpi-blog-scoring-down-in-december/.  Fouls and free throw attempts were also down in December compared to November of this year.
  • 15.6% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 402-14 (.966) in those games by a margin of 90.0 PPG to 60.7 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 345 in the #KPI).

Points Per Game: Up 6.6% (4.5 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 72.0 PPG: Through January 6 of last season, teams were averaging 67.5 PPG (an 6.6% increase this year compared to this date last year). In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.6% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.6% from made 3-pt FGs and 21.9% from made free throws.  The net increase is +1.8 points from made 2′s, +0.6 points from made 3′s and +2.0 points from made free throws.  72.0 PPG is the highest average since 1995-96 (72.5 PPG).  Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 2.7%.  The 4.7 PPG increase in scoring is the largest year to year scoring increase since 1952-53 (+5.8 PPG), larger than the +3.4 PPG scoring increase in 1986-87 coinciding with the introduction of the 3-pt line.  Teams averaged 73.2 points in November and 70.7 points in December.

Average Margin Per Game: +15.8 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +15.3 PPG through the same period last season.

Possessions Per Game: Up 3.8% (2.6 possession per game); from 66.7 to 69.2 possessions per game per team.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.1% (1.7 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 56.7 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 43.9%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goals made are up 4.6%.  Field goal attempts per possession are down slightly (0.825 FGA per possession in 2012-13 to 0.819 FGA per possession this year) while field goals made per possession are up 0.8%.  Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 2001-02 (57.23 FGA/game).

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.1% (0.6 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.7 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 34.1%, same as last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since an all-time high in 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 15.2% (3.0 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 22.8 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 69.1% (69.3% last year).  Teams are making 2.0 more free throws per game this year.  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1993-94 (23.2 FTA/game).  Free throw attempts per possession are up 10.9%.  Free Throw Attempts fell from 23.5 in November to 21.9 in December.

Rebounds: Up 2.8% (1.0 rebounds per game); from 34.5 to 35.5 rebounds: Rebounds per possession are down 1.0%.

Assists: Up 1.3% (0.2 assists per game); from 12.8 to 13.0 assists: Assists per possession are down 2.4% partly because an assist is not attached to a made free throw.

Turnovers: Down 2.5% (0.3 turnovers per game); 13.3 to 13.0 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.1% while steals per possession are down 7.8%.  More plays that used to be steals/turnovers are being called fouls.

Personal Fouls: Up 10.4% (1.8 fouls per game); 17.7 to 19.5 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 2000-01 (19.92 fouls per game).  Fouls per possession are up 6.3%.  Total fouls called have trended downward the first eight weeks this season (21.2, 20.5, 19.9, 19.3, 19.2, 19.1, 18.9, 18.5) before hitting 18.9 fouls per game in Week 9 (Dec 30-Jan 5)

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

This is the #KPI

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