WEEK 8 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 12/30/13)

Welcome to Week 8 of the basketball version of the #KPI.

Since the #KPI formula computes values for each game, data can be manipulated to calculate #KPI for teams broken down in several different ways.  Conference KPI, Home KPI, Road KPI, Neutral KPI, Road/Neutral KPI and Top 100 KPI are all now available.  More customizable queries are able to be computed as well.

As I wrote on December 16per possession data is critical when analyzing the statistical differences attributed to rule changes in place this season. More fouls are being called (up 1.9 fouls per team per game, 10.9% increase overall, 6.6% increase per possession).  This is leading to more free throws (up 3.1 FTA per team per game, 15.6% increase overall, 11.1% increase per possession).  More fouls and free throws are leading to shorter possessions and hence more possessions (up 2.7 possessions per team per game, 4.1% increase). The average length of possession has decreased from 17.99 seconds to 17.29 seconds this year. The increase in possessions remains critical to the rest of the analysis.

Made field goals are up 5.0% (FG% is up from 43.3% to 44.0%), but up only 0.9% per possession.  3-pt field goal makes and attempts per possession are down 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.  Points per possession are up 2.7%.  Turnovers are down 6.0% per possession and steals are down 8.1% per possession, clearly identifying that more plays that were last year turnovers/steals are now being called fouls.

16.2% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non-Division I teams.  Division I teams are 363-14 (.967) in those games by a margin of 89.7 PPG to 61.0 PPG.  Non-Division I games also count in the #KPI rankings.  All games against Non-Division I teams count as one opponent (currently No. 340 in the #KPI).

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season by day, week and margin through Sunday, December 29: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-12-29-2013.pdf

#KPI by Team (through December 29): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-week-8.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through December 29): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-8.pdf

#KPI by Game (through December 29): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-week-8.pdf

#KPI Notes:

  • 21.5% of games have been decided by 5 points or less, 20.2% of games by 6-10 points, 30.5% of games decided by 11-20 points and 27.8% decided by more than 20 points.
  • Teams are averaging 20.0 fouls and 23.5 free throw attempts in games decided by 5 points or less.  Teams are averaging 18.7 fouls and 21.5 free throw attempts in games decided by more than 20 points.  Closer games mean more fouls and more free throws.
  • Winning teams are averaging 80.1 points, 27.5-57.6 FG (48.5%), 6.8-18.0 3-pt (38.0%), 18.2-25.9 FT (70.4%), 38.7 rebounds, 15.1 assists, 7.1 steals, 4.4 blocks, 12.1 turnovres and 18.2 fouls per game.
  • Losing teams are averaging 64.2 points, 22.5-57.0 FG (39.5%), 5.9-19.4 3-pt (30.5%), 13.3-19.8 FT (67.5%), 32.4 rebounds, 10.9 assists, 5.7 steals, 2.9 blocks, 13.9 turnovers and 21.1 fouls per game.

Points Per Game: Up 6.9% (4.7 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 72.2 PPG: Through December 30 of last season, teams were averaging 67.5 PPG (an 6.9% increase this year compared to this date last year). In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.5% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.6% from made 3-pt FGs and 21.9% from made free throws.  The net increase is +1.9 points from made 2′s, +0.7 points from made 3′s and +2.1 points from made free throws.  72.2 PPG is the highest average since 1995-96 (72.5 PPG).  Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 2.7%.  Scoring has trended downward nearly every week so far (Week 1: 73.1 PPG; Week 2: 74.1 PPG; Week 3: 73.1 PPG; Week 4: 72.1 PPG; Week 5: 71.0 PPG; Week 6: 71.2 PPG; Week 7: 70.7 PPG; Week 8: 70.2 PPG).  The 4.7 PPG increase in scoring is the largest year to year scoring increase since 1952-53 (+5.8 PPG), larger than the +3.4 PPG scoring increase in 1986-87 coinciding with the introduction of the 3-pt line.

Average Margin Per Game: +16.7 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +15.6 PPG through the same period last season.

Possessions Per Game: Up 4.1% (2.7 possession per game); from 66.7 to 69.4 possessions per game per team.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.4% (1.9 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 56.9 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 44.0%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goals made are up 5.0%.  Field goal attempts per possession are down slightly (0.825 FGA per possession in 2012-13 to 0.819 FGA per possession this year) while field goals made per possession are up 0.9%.  Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 2001-02 (57.23 FGA/game).

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.2% (0.58 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.7 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 34.1%, same as last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since an all-time high in 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 15.6% (3.09 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 22.9 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 69.1% (69.3% last year).  Teams are making 2.08 more free throws per game this year.  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1993-94 (23.2 FTA/game).  Free throw attempts per possession are up 11.1%.  Free Throw Attempts were at a season-low 21.2 during Week 8 (Dec 23-29).

Rebounds: Up 3.0% (1.0 rebounds per game); from 34.5 to 35.5 rebounds: Rebounds per possession are down 1.0%.  Slightly more possessions are ending without a rebound because slightly more field goals are being made and free throw makes are more likely than field goal makes.

Assists: Up 1.4% (0.2 assists per game); from 12.8 to 13.0 assists: Assists per possession are down 2.5% partly because an assist is not attached to a made free throw.

Turnovers: Down 2.1% (0.3 turnovers per game); 13.3 to 13.0 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.0% while steals per possession are down 8.1%.  More plays that used to be steals/turnovers are being called fouls.

Personal Fouls: Up 10.9% (1.9 fouls per game); 17.7 to 19.6 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 2000-01 (also 19.92 fouls per game).  Fouls per possession are up 6.6%.  Total fouls called have trended downward all eight weeks this season (21.2, 20.5, 19.9, 19.3, 19.2, 19.1, 18.9, 18.5).

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

#KPI Basketball Top 50 (through games of December 29, 2013)

  1. Wisconsin (13-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .393
  2. Massachusetts (11-1, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .382
  3. Syracuse (12-0, 0-0 ACC), .375
  4. Oklahoma State (11-1, 0-0 Big 12), .320
  5. Arizona (13-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .313
  6. Oregon (12-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .303
  7. Iowa State (11-0, 0-0 Big 12), .301
  8. Villanova (11-1, 0-0 Big East), .287
  9. Wichita State (13-0, 0-0 MVC), .286
  10. Michigan State (11-1, 0-0 Big Ten), .280
  11. Kansas (8-3, 0-0 Big 12), .274
  12. Ohio State (13-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .263
  13. Texas (10-2, 0-0 Big 12), .240
  14. Baylor (10-1, 0-0 Big 12), .240
  15. Colorado (11-2, 0-0 Pac-12), .236
  16. Harvard (11-1, 0-0 Ivy), .236
  17. Missouri (11-1, 0-0 SEC), .234
  18. North Carolina (9-3, 0-0 ACC), .233
  19. George Washington (11-1, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .225
  20. LSU (9-2, 0-0 SEC), .223
  21. Connecticut (11-1, 0-0 American), .216
  22. New Mexico (9-3, 0-0 Mountain West), .213
  23. Kentucky (10-3, 0-0 SEC), .213
  24. Pittsburgh (11-1, 0-0 ACC), .210
  25. Florida (10-2, 0-0 SEC), .208
  26. Florida State (8-3, 0-0 ACC), .207
  27. Toledo (12-0, 0-0 MAC), .207
  28. Illinois (11-2, 0-0 Big Ten), .204
  29. Memphis (9-2, 0-0 American), .200
  30. Minnesota (11-2, 0-0 Big Ten), .196
  31. Creighton (10-2, 0-0 Big East), .195
  32. Iowa (11-2, 0-0 Big Ten), .194
  33. Southern Miss (12-2, 0-0 Conference USA), .193
  34. New Mexico State (11-5, 0-0 WAC), .191
  35. Gonzaga (11-2, 1-0 WCC), .191
  36. Manhattan (9-2, 2-0 MAAC), .190
  37. VCU (11-3, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .187
  38. Dayton (10-3, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .186
  39. Princeton (9-2, 0-0 Ivy), .185
  40. Cincinnati (11-2, 0-0 American), .184
  41. Louisville (11-2, 0-0 American), .180
  42. Arkansas (10-2, 0-0 SEC), .179
  43. Duke (10-2, 0-0 ACC), .178
  44. Utah State (10-2, 0-0 Mountain West), .177
  45. Oklahoma (11-1, 0-0 Big 12), .175
  46. Pacific (9-2, 0-0 WCC), .174
  47. Boise State (10-3, 0-0 Mountain West), .173
  48. Xavier (10-3, 0-0 Big East), .173
  49. St. Mary’s-CA (9-3, 0-0 WCC), .172
  50. Butler (10-2, 0-0 Big East), .171

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of December 29, 2013)

  1. Big 12 (94-24, .797) .174 KPI
  2. Big Ten (122-31, .797) .164 KPI
  3. Pac-12 (119-32, .788) .143 KPI
  4. Big East (93-31, .750) .133 KPI
  5. ACC (130-53, .710)  .132 KPI
  6. SEC (111-47, .703) .120 KPI
  7. Atlantic 10 (110-50, .688) .103 KPI
  8. American (88-33, .727) .089 KPI
  9. Mountain West (89-46, .659) .078 KPI
  10. WCC (86-44, .662) .072 KPI
  11. Missouri Valley (75-49, .605) .039 KPI
  12. MAC (77-53, .592) .031 KPI
  13. Horizon (68-60, .531) .005 KPI
  14. Summit (57-56, .504) .001 KPI
  15. Sun Belt (56-59, .487) -.003 KPI
  16. Big West (52-61, .460) -.007 KPI
  17. Conference USA (115-92, .556) -.015 KPI
  18. Ivy (46-44, .511) -.021 KPI
  19. Colonial (49-62, .441) -.029 KPI
  20. WAC (55-65, .458) -.036 KPI
  21. MAAC (58-71, 450) -.042 KPI
  22. Big Sky (44-63, .411) -.042 KPI
  23. Patriot (52-58, .473) -.047 KPI
  24. Atlantic Sun (52-71, .423) -.062 KPI
  25. Southland (64-93, .408) -.063 KPI
  26. Ohio Valley (69-94, .423) -.063 KPI
  27. Big South (66-79, .455) -.068 KPI
  28. SWAC (30-81, .270) -.076 KPI
  29. Southern (57-86, .399) -.103 KPI
  30. Northeast (43-82, .344) -.103 KPI
  31. MEAC (48-114, .296) -.116 KPI
  32. America East (35-74, .321) -.125 KPI

Top 20 #KPI Wins – ALL GAMES (through games of December 29, 2013)

  1. +1.05     12/4       #18 North Carolina 79, #10 Michigan State 65
  2. +0.95     12/18     #55 Stanford 53, #21 Connecticut 51
  3. +0.95     12/21     #10 Michigan State 92, #13 Texas 78
  4. +0.93     11/16     #19 George Washington 80, #36 Manhattan 74
  5. +0.93     11/14     #5 Arizona 69, #51 #51 San Diego State 60
  6. +0.92     11/26     #114 Fordham 79, #36 Manhattan 75
  7. +0.88     12/1       #9 Wichita State 70, #60 Saint Louis 65
  8. +0.85     12/7       #46 Pacific 78, #44 Utah State 68
  9. +0.83     12/14     #49 St. Mary’s-CA 82, #47 Boise State 74
  10. +0.83     12/4       #1 Wisconsin 48, #56 Virginia 38
  11. +0.80     12/17     #34 New Mexico State 67, #22 New Mexico 61
  12. +0.79     11/17     #63 Belmont 83, #18 North Carolina 80
  13. +0.79     12/18     #13 Texas 86, #18 North Carolina 83
  14. +0.79     12/14     #34 New Mexico State 81, #67 Drake 69 (OT)
  15. +0.79     11/18     #33 Southern Miss 70, #54 North Dakota State 69
  16. +0.78     12/21     #26 Florida State 60, #2 Massachusetts 55
  17. +0.78     12/4       #22 New Mexico 79, #34 New Mexico State 70
  18. +0.77     12/18     #2 Massachusetts 83, #66 Ohio 71
  19. +0.77     12/4       #77 Louisiana-Lafayette 89, #80 Louisiana Tech 80
  20. +0.77     12/22     #75 USC 79, #38 Dayton 76 (OT)

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

Top 20 #KPI Wins – NEUTRAL SITE GAMES (through games of December 29, 2013)

  1. +0.78     12/21     #26 Florida State 60, #2 Massachusetts 55
  2. +0.74     12/1       #29 Memphis 73, #4 Oklahoma State 68
  3. +0.74     11/29     #92 Marquette 76, #19 George Washington 60
  4. +0.73     11/8       #14 Baylor 72, #15 Colorado 60
  5. +0.71     11/27     #3 Syracuse 74, #14 Baylor 67
  6. +0.70     11/23     #10 Michigan State 87, #45 Oklahoma 76
  7. +0.70     12/20     #39 Princeton 83, #46 Pacific 58
  8. +0.69     12/21     #28 Illinois 65, #17 Missouri 64
  9. +0.69     12/21     #4 Oklahoma State 78, #15 Colorado 73
  10. +0.69     11/28     #31 Creighton 88, #57 Arizona State 60

Top 20 #KPI Wins – HOME GAMES (through games of December 29, 2013)

  1. +0.66     11/29     #41 Louisville 69, #33 Southern Miss 38
  2. +0.64     12/28     #3 Syracuse 78, #8 Villanova 62
  3. +0.59     11/24     #15 Colorado 70, #16 Harvard 62
  4. +0.54     11/29     #6 Oregon 85, #45 Pacific 62
  5. +0.54     11/12     #1 Wisconsin 59, #25 Florida 53
  6. +0.53     12/17     #41 Louisville 90, #68 Missouri State 60
  7. +0.53     12/3       #79 Georgia Tech 67, #28 Illinois 64
  8. +0.52     11/19     #4 Oklahoma State 101, #29 Memphis 80
  9. +0.52     12/18     #116 Western Kentucky 68, #33 Southern Miss 65
  10. +0.51     12/2       #21 Connecticut 65, #25 Florida 64

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 15.8 points per game.  That margin is 16.7 points per game in home/away games, 10.8 points per game in neutral site games.  The margin was +17.3 PPG in Week 8 (Dec 23-29), the largest margin since Week 2 (Nov 11-17).
  • The current adjustments are +0.20 for road teams, -0.21 for home teams and -0.07 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The average win is worth +0.16.  The average loss is worth -0.17.
  • Scoring (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (79.5 PPG); 2-Big 12 (78.6 PPG); 3-WCC (78.5 PPG); 4-Big Ten (77.5 PPG); 5-American (77.0 PPG); 6-Mountain West (76.2 PPG); 7-Big East (76.2 PPG); 8-SEC (75.3 PPG); 9-Horizon (75.3 PPG); 10-ACC (74.8 PPG)
  • Points Against (by conference): 1-Big Ten (64.5 PPG); 2-Big East (65.5 PPG); 3-ACC (65.5 PPG); 4-American (66.3 PPG); 5-SEC (66.6 PPG); 6-Big 12 (67.2 PPG); 7-Pac-12 (67.9 PPG); 8-Atlantic 10 (68.0 PPG); 9-Mountain West (68.1 PPG); 10-Missouri Valley (68.7 PPG)
  • Points Per Possession (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (1.144); 2-Big Ten (1.132); 3-WCC (1.127); 4-Big 12 (1.124); 5-American (1.117); 6-Mountain West (1.116); 7-Big East (1.107); 8-ACC (1.100); 9-SEC (1.093); 10-Horizon (1.081)
  • Home teams are 1531-453 (.772).  There have been 346 games (14.9% of all games) played at a neutral site.  The home/away adjustments are still high because the home win percentage is higher in non-conference play than conference play.
  • Manhattan is 8-0 in road/neutral games.  Massachusetts, Harvard, Southern Miss and Milwaukee have 7 road/neutral wins apiece. Toledo, North Dakota State and Louisiana Tech have 6 each.  Only 12 teams are undefeated in road/neutral games (Wisconsin, Syracuse, Arizona, Oregon, Iowa State, Wichita State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Connecticut, Toledo, Manhattan, San Diego State)
  • Massachusetts has 7 wins vs. #KPI top-100 teams.  Wisconsin, Syracuse, Oklahoma State and Arizona have 6 apiece.
  • Oakland has played 9 #KPI top-100 teams (most of anyone).  Massachusetts, Kentucky and Long Beach State have each played 8.
  • Road Record (by conference): 1-Big East (11-7, .611); 2-Pac-12 (13-10, .565); 3-Atlantic 10 (22-20, .524); t4-Big Ten (10-10, .500); t4-Big 12 (7-7, .500)
  • Road/Neutral Record (by conference): 1-Big 12 (36-18, .667); 2-Atlantic 10 (45-35, .563); 3-Big Ten (32-25, .561); 4-American (25-20, .556); 5-WCC (33-31, .516)
  • #KPI Top 100 Record (by conference): 1-Big 12 (29-19, .604); t2-Big Ten (26-26, .500); t2-Pac-12 (25-25, .500); 4-Big East (19-25, .432); American (13-18, .419)
  • Top-10 #KPI SOS: 1-Kansas; 2-BYU; 3-South Carolina; 4-Massachusetts; 5-Kentucky; 6-New Mexico; 7-LSU; 8-Louisiana-Monroe; 9-Colorado; 10-North Carolina

This is the #KPI

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