WEEK 4 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 12/9/13)

Welcome to Week 4 of the basketball version of the #KPI.

Raw statistical data by day, week and margin through games of Tuesday, December 3 can be found here: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-12-8-2013.pdf

#KPI by Team (through Week 4): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-week-4.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 4): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-4.pdf

#KPI by Game (through Week 4): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-week-4.pdf

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season (through Sunday, December 8):

#KPI Notes:

  • Virtually all numbers that have trended upward this season have trended downward in the last few weeks.  Points (74.1 PPG in Week 2; 71.0 PPG in Week 5), Possessions (71.0 in Week 2; 68.8 in Week 5), Field Goal Attempts (58.1 in Week 2; 56.5 in Week 5), Free Throw Attempts (24.0 in Week 2; 22.5 in Week 5) and Personal Fouls (20.5 in Week 2; 19.0 in Week 5) are all trending downward.  When factoring in the increased number of possessions, FGA are down 0.8% per possession; 3-ptA down 1.4% per possession, rebounds are down 1.1% per possession; assists down 3.8% per possession; steals down 8.7% per possession and turnovers are down 6.2% per possession.
  • Teams are averaging 20.4 fouls and 23.9 free throw attempts in games decided by 5 points or less.  Teams are averaging 19.0 fouls and 21.8 free throw attempts in games decided by more than 20 points.  Closer games mean more fouls and more free throws.
  • Winning teams are averaging 26.3 free throw attempts and 18.5 fouls per game.  Losing teams are averaging 20.2 free throw attempts and 21.4 fouls per game.
  • Winning teams are averaging 80.7 points, 27.7-57.0 FG (48.5%), 6.8-17.0 3-pt (38.0%), 18.5-26.3 FT (70.6%), 38.9 rebounds, 15.0 assists, 7.1 steals, 4.4 blocks, 12.2 turnovres and 18.5 fouls per game.
  • Losing teams are averaging 64.8 points, 22.7-57.3 FG (39.5%), 5.9-19.5 3-pt (30.2%), 13.6-20.2 FT (67.5%), 32.5 rebounds, 10.9 assists, 5.7 steals, 2.9 blocks, 14.0 turnovers and 21.4 fouls per game.

Points Per Game: Up 7.8% (5.25 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 72.7 PPG: Through the first 31 days of the 2012-13 season, teams were averaging 67.5 PPG (an 7.8% increase this year compared to the first 31 days of last year). In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.7% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.2% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.1% from made free throws.  The net increase is +2.32 points from made 2′s, +0.54 points from made 3′s and +2.37 points from made free throws.  72.7 PPG is the highest average since 1994-95 (74.2 PPG).  Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 2.9%.  Scoring has trended downward by nearly a point per week since Week 2 (74.1 PPG in Week 2 to 71.0 PPG in Week 5).

Average Margin Per Game: +16.9 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +15.8 PPG through the first 31 days of the season.

Possessions Per Game: Up 4.8% (3.2 possession per game); from 66.7 to 69.9 possessions per game.  Pace has slowed from 72.0 the first week, 71.0 during Week 2 to 68.8 during Week 5.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.9% (2.2 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 57.2 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 44.0%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goal attempts per possession are down slightly (0.825 FGA per possession in 2012-13 to 0.818 FGA per possession this year).  Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 2001-02 (57.23 FGA/game).

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.3% (0.59 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.7 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 33.9% down slightly from 34.1% last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 17.6% (3.47 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 23.2 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 69.2% (69.3% last year).  Teams are making 2.37 more free throws per game this year.  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1993-94 (23.2 FTA/game).  Free throw attempts per possession are up only 12.3%, and were down to 22.5 per game in Week 5 (Dec 1-8).

Rebounds: Up 3.4% (1.19 rebounds per game); from 34.5 to 35.7 rebounds: Rebounds per possession are down 1.1%.

Assists: Up 0.8% (0.10 assists per game); from 12.8 to 12.9 assists: Assists per possession are actually down 3.8%.

Turnovers: Down 1.8% (0.2 turnovers per game); 13.3 to 13.1 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.2%.

Personal Fouls: Up 12.7% (2.2 fouls per game); 17.7 to 19.9 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 1993-94 (also 19.9 fouls per game).  Fouls per possession are up 7.6%.

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

#KPI Basketball Top 50 (through games of December 1, 2013)

  1. Massachusetts (8-0, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .436
  2. Wisconsin (10-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .411
  3. Syracuse (9-0, 0-0 ACC), .332
  4. Villanova (9-0, 0-0 Big East), .313
  5. Oregon (8-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .309
  6. Arizona (9-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .306
  7. St. Mary’s-CA (7-0, 0-0 WCC), .301
  8. Wichita State (9-0, 0-0 MVC), .293
  9. New Mexico (7-1, 0-0 Mountain West), .290
  10. Kansas (6-2, 0-0 Big 12), .289
  11. Oklahoma State (8-1, 0-0 Big 12), .288
  12. Colorado (9-1, 0-0 Pac-12), .287
  13. Baylor (8-1, 0-0 Big 12), .283
  14. North Carolina (6-2, 0-0 ACC), .281
  15. Connecticut (9-0, 0-0 American), .273
  16. Belmont (8-2, 0-0 OVC), .269
  17. Michigan State (7-1, 0-0  Big Ten), .265
  18. Pacific (7-1, 0-0 WCC), .257
  19. Iowa State (7-0, 0-0 Big 12), .254
  20. VCU (8-2, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .251
  21. Pittsburgh (9-0, 0-0 ACC), .247
  22. Missouri (9-0, 0-0 SEC), .235
  23. Ohio State (8-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .235
  24. Harvard (9-1, 0-0 Ivy), .232
  25. Memphis (6-1, 0-0 American), .232
  26. George Washington (8-1, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .228
  27. Dayton (7-2, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .228
  28. BYU (7-3, 0-0 WCC), .226
  29. Arkansas (6-2, 0-0 SEC), .224
  30. Iowa (9-1, 0-0 Big Ten), .224
  31. Southern Miss (8-1, 0-0 Conference USA), .221
  32. San Diego State (7-1, 0-0 Mountain West), .220
  33. Gonzaga (8-1, 0-0 WCC), .219
  34. Texas (8-1, 0-0 Big 12), .215
  35. UCLA (8-1, 0-0 Pac-12), .193
  36. Toledo (8-0, 0-0 MAC), .181
  37. Virginia (7-3, 0-0 ACC), .181
  38. Oklahoma (8-1, 0-0 Big 12), .179
  39. Princeton (6-1, 0-0 Ivy), .171
  40. Bucknell (5-4, 0-0 Patriot), .168
  41. Cincinnati (7-1, 0-0 American), .165
  42. Utah State (5-2, 0-0 Mountain West), .164
  43. Creighton (7-2, 0-0 Big East), .161
  44. Florida (6-2, 0-0 SEC), .158
  45. LSU (5-2, 0-0 SEC), .158
  46. Illinois (8-1, 0-0 Big Ten), .154
  47. Mississippi (6-2, 0-0 SEC), .153
  48. Boise State (8-0, 0-0 Mountain West), .151
  49. Drake (6-2, 0-0 MVC), .146
  50. North Dakota State (6-3, 0-0 Summit), .144

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of December 8, 2013)

  1. Big 12 (67-18, .788) .167 KPI
  2. Big Ten (89-23, .795) .148 KPI
  3. Pac-12 (78-23, .772) .139 KPI
  4. Big East (63-24, .724) .128 KPI
  5. ACC (98-39, .715)  .124 KPI
  6. Atlantic 10 (79-36, .687) .107 KPI
  7. SEC (75-33, .694) .096 KPI
  8. American (62-24, .721) .084 KPI
  9. Mountain West (61-32, .656) .076 KPI
  10. WCC (62-27, .697) .075 KPI

Top 25 #KPI Wins (through games of December 8, 2013)

  1. +0.99     12/4       #14 North Carolina 79, #17 Michigan State 65
  2. +0.97     11/14     #6 Arizona 69, #32 San Diego State 60
  3. +0.93     12/1       #20 VCU 81, #16 Belmont 68
  4. +0.85     11/17     #16 Belmont 83, #14 North Carolina 80
  5. +0.84     12/1       #8 Wichita State 70, #57 Saint Louis 65
  6. +0.80     12/8       #5 Oregon 115, #47 Mississippi 105 (OT)
  7. +0.79     11/19     #63 DePaul 80, #110 Milwaukee 71
  8. +0.79     12/4       #2 Wisconsin 48, #37 Virginia 38
  9. +0.79     11/22     #1 Massachusetts 81, #9 New Mexico 65
  10. +0.79     11/8       #13 Baylor 72, #12 Colorado 60
  11. +0.78     12/4       #53 Louisiana-Lafayette 89, #93 Louisiana Tech 80
  12. +0.78     12/7       #18 Pacific 78, #42 Utah State 68
  13. +0.77     11/16     #26 George Washington 80, #70 Manhattan 74
  14. +0.76     11/26     #145 Fordham 79, #70 Manhattan 75
  15. +0.76     11/20     #19 Iowa State 90, #28 BYU 88
  16. +0.75     11/27     #3 Syracuse 74, #13 Baylor 67
  17. +0.75     12/3       #16 Belmont 70, #67 Middle Tennessee 58
  18. +0.73     11/12     #20 VCU 59, #37 Virginia 56
  19. +0.73     11/16     #51 Minnesota 74, #60 Richmond 59
  20. +0.72     12/7       #50 North Dakota State 66, #73 Bryant 62
  21. +0.72     11/29     #83 Marquette 76, #26 George Washington 60
  22. +0.72     12/1       #25 Memphis 73, #11 Oklahoma State 68
  23. +0.71     11/11     #28 BYU 112, #78 Stanford 103
  24. +0.70     11/30     #4 Villanova 88, #30 Iowa 83 (OT)
  25. +0.70     11/18     #31 Southern Miss 70, #50 North Dakota State 69

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 15.9 points per game.  That margin is 16.9 points per game in home/away games, 10.7 points per game in neutral site games and was at a season-high low 14.1 points per game during Week 5 (Dec 1-8).
  • The current adjustments are +0.20 for road teams, -0.21 for home teams and -0.07 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The average win is worth +0.15.  The average loss is worth -0.17.
  • Scoring (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (80.3 PPG); 2-WCC (80.2 PPG); 3-Big 12 (79.3 PPG); 4-Big Ten (77.8 PPG); 5-American (77.5 PPG); 6-SEC (77.2 PPG); 7-Mountain West (76.6 PPG); 8-Horizon (76.5 PPG); 9-Big East (76.0 PPG); 10-ACC (75.7 PPG)
  • Points Against (by conference): 1-Big Ten (65.2 PPG); 2-ACC (65.7 PPG); 3-Big East (66.6 PPG); 4-American (67.4 PPG); 5-SEC (67.9 PPG); 6-Big 12 (67.9 PPG); 7-Atlantic 10 (68.6 PPG); 8-Summit (68.6 PPG); 9-Ivy (69.2 PPG); 10-Pac-12 (69.5 PPG)
  • Points Per Possession (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (1.149); 2-WCC (1.134); 3-Big Ten (1.134); 4-Big 12 (1.124); 5-American (1.112); 6-ACC (1.110); 7-Mountain West (1.109); 8-SEC (1.108); 9-Big East (1.097); 10-Horizon (1.086)
  • 17.0% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non Division I teams.  Division I teams are 273-10 (.965) in those games by a margin of 89.1 PPG to 61.3 PPG.  4 of the 10 wins by Non-Division I teams are on a neutral floor and
  • Home teams are 1070-319 (.770).  There have been 274 games (16.5% of all games) played at a neutral site.
  • Massachusetts has 5 neutral site wins while Baylor and Harvard have 4 apiece.  Manhattan is 5-0 in true road games while Stephen F. Austin, Milwaukee, Brown and Delaware have 4 true road wins apiece.
  • Wisconsin has 7 wins over #KPI top-100 teams.  Next best is only 4 – Massachusetts, Syracuse, St. Mary’s-CA, Baylor and Arkansas.
  • Top-10 #KPI SOS: 1-North Dakota; 2-Kansas; 3-LSU; 4-BYU; 5-Akron; 6-Grambling; 7-Massachusetts; 8-DePaul; 9-South Carolina; 10-North Carolina
  • Offensive Points/Possession: 1-Gonzaga; 2-Boise State; 3-Toledo; 4-Utah; 5-Oregon; 6-Oklahoma State; 7-UCLA; 8-St. Mary’s-CA; 9-Louisville; 10-Charleston Southern
  • Defensive Points/Possession: 1-Ohio State; 2-Western Illinois; 3-Louisville; 4-Clemson; 5-Utah; 6-Cincinnati; 7-Saint Louis; 8-Iowa State; 9-Virginia; 10-Villanova
  • 46 of the top-50 #KPI teams commit fewer fouls than their opponents.  43 of the top 50 #KPI teams shoot more free throws than their opponents.

This is the #KPI

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.