WEEK 3 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 12/2/13)

Welcome to Week 3 of the basketball version of the #KPI.  We are now 23% of the way through the season (already!).  Data is developing rapidly and becoming more meaningful.  Remember that all teams started at zero to begin the year, so the rankings are a measurement of resumes to date.  There is a lot of data to still collect.

 

UPDATE: Raw statistical data by day, week and margin through games of Tuesday, December 3 can be found here: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-12-3-2013.pdf

Numbers by each conference can be found on the second page of this PDF: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-3.pdf

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season (through Sunday, December 1): Note that because strength of schedule increases as the season progresses, there is increased margin for error.

#KPI Notes:

  • The increases are less dramatic when factoring in the increase in possessions.  Per possession, FGA are down 0.9%, 3-ptA are down 1.5%, FTA are up 12.7%; Rebounds are down 1.4%, Assists are down 4.3%, Steals are down 8.4%, Blocks are down 0.8%, Turnovers are down 6.2%, Fouls are up 8.1% and Points are up 3.1% (all per possession).
  • Virtually all numbers that have trended upward this season have trended downward in the last two weeks.  Points (74.1 PPG in Week 2; 73.1 PPG in Week 3, 72.1 PPG in Week 4), Possessions (71.0 in Week 2; 70.0 in Week 3, 68.3 in Week 4), Field Goal Attempts (58.1 in Week 2 to 57.2 in Week 3, 55.9 in Week 4), Free Throw Attempts (24.0 in Week 2 to 23.4 in Week 3, 22.2 in Week 4) and Personal Fouls (20.5 in Week 2, 19.9 in Week 3, 19.3 in Week 4) are all trending downward.
  • Teams are averaging 20.6 fouls and 24.2 free throw attempts in games decided by 5 points or less.  Teams are averaging 19.2 fouls and 22.0 free throw attempts in games decided by more than 20 points.  Closer  games mean more fouls and more free throws.
  • Winning teams are averaging 26.5 free throw attempts and 18.7 fouls per game.  Losing teams are averaging 20.3 free throw attempts and 21.5 fouls per game.
  • Winning teams are averaging 81.3 points, 27.9-57.2 FG (48.7%), 6.9-17.9 3-pt (38.2%), 18.7-26.5 FT (70.6%), 39.2 rebounds, 15.0 assists, 7.1 steals, 4.4 blocks, 12.2 turnovres and 18.7 fouls per game.
  • Losing teams are averaging 65.0 points, 22.7-57.4 FG (39.5%), 5.9-19.6 3-pt (30.3%), 13.7-20.3 FT (67.6%), 32.4 rebounds, 10.8 assists, 5.8 steals, 2.9 blocks, 14.0 turnovers and 21.5 fouls per game.

Points Per Game: Up 8.3% (5.63 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 73.1 PPG: Through the first 24 days of the 2012-13 season, teams were averaging 67.5 PPG (an 9.2% increase this year compared to the first 24 days of last year). In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.6% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.2% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.1% from made free throws.  The net increase is +2.44 points from made 2′s, +0.66 points from made 3′s and +2.52 points from made free throws.  73.5 PPG is the highest average since 1994-95 (74.2 PPG).  Points Per Possession have increased at a rate of 3.1%.

Average Margin Per Game: +16.3 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +15.7 PPG through the first 24 days of the season.

Possessions Per Game: Up 5.1% (3.4 possession per game); from 66.7 to 70.1 possessions per game.  More fouls and free throw attempts per game makes for shorter possessions, and hence more possessions.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 4.2% (2.30 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 57.3 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 44.1%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goal attempts per possession are down slightly (0.825 FGA per possession in 2012-13 to 0.817 FGA per possession this year).  Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 1999-2000 (57.4 FGA/game).

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 3.5% (0.64 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 18.8 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 34.1%, matching last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 18.4% (3.64 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 23.4 FTA: Team free throw percentage matches last year’s 69.3%.  Teams are making 2.52 more free throws per game this year.  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1971-72 (25.6 FTA/game).  Free throw attempts per possession are up only 12.7%.

Rebounds: Up 3.5% (1.21 rebounds per game); from 34.5 to 35.8 rebounds: Possessions and shots increase, so it only makes sense for rebounds to proportionately increase as well.

Assists: Up 0.6% (0.08 assists per game); from 12.8 to 12.9 assists: Assists per possession are actually down 4.3%.

Turnovers: Down 1.4% (0.19 turnovers per game); 13.30 to 13.11 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.2%.

Personal Fouls: Up 13.9% (2.45 fouls per game); 17.7 to 20.1 fouls: Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 1988-89 (20.1 fouls per game).  Fouls per possession are up only 8.3%.

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

#KPI by Team (through Week 3): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-week-3.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 3): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-3.pdf

#KPI by Game (through Week 3): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-week-3.pdf

#KPI Basketball Top 50 (through games of December 1, 2013)

  1. Massachusetts (6-0, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .423
  2. Villanova (7-0, 0-0 Big East), .354
  3. Syracuse (7-0, 0-0 ACC), .350
  4. Wisconsin (8-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .345
  5. Connecticut (7-0, 0-0 American), .342
  6. Kansas (6-1, 0-0 Big 12), .328
  7. Arizona (7-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .318
  8. Wichita State (8-0, 0-0 MVC), .303
  9. Michigan State (7-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .302
  10. Dayton (6-1, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .300
  11. St. Mary’s-CA (6-0, 0-0 WCC), .294
  12. Ohio State (6-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .292
  13. Iowa State (5-0, 0-0 Big 12), .288
  14. Baylor (7-1, 0-0 Big 12), .269
  15. VCU (6-2, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .266
  16. BYU (6-2, 0-0 WCC), .262
  17. Memphis (5-1, 0-0 American), .257
  18. Illinois (7-0, 0-0 Big Ten), .249
  19. Oklahoma State (7-1, 0-0 Big 12), .242
  20. George Washington (6-1, 0-0 Atlantic 10), .239
  21. Southern Miss (6-1, 0-0 Conference USA), .229
  22. Pittsburgh (7-0, 0-0 ACC), .225
  23. Oregon (7-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .220
  24. Drake (6-1, 0-0 MVC), .213
  25. Florida (6-1, 0-0 SEC), .207
  26. Utah State (5-1, 0-0 Mountain West), .206
  27. Virginia (7-1, 0-0 ACC), .203
  28. Cincinnati (6-0, 0-0 American), .201
  29. UCLA (7-0, 0-0 Pac-12), .200
  30. North Carolina Central (5-1, 0-0 MEAC), .199
  31. Texas (6-1, 0-0 Big 12), .198
  32. Colorado (7-1, 0-0 Pac-12), .196
  33. Gonzaga (7-1, 0-0 WCC), .192
  34. LSU (5-2, 0-0 SEC), .187
  35. Belmont (7-2, 0-0 OVC), .187
  36. Pacific (6-1, 0-0 WCC), .181
  37. San Diego State (5-1, 0-0 Mountain West), .178
  38. Arkansas (4-2, 0-0 SEC), .176
  39. New Mexico (5-1, 0-0 Mountain West), .175
  40. Harvard (7-1, 0-0 Ivy), .174
  41. North Carolina (4-2, 0-0 ACC), .172
  42. Mississippi (6-0, 0-0 SEC), .171
  43. Toledo (6-0, 0-0 MAC), .167
  44. Ohio (6-1, 0-0 MAC), .167
  45. Oklahoma (5-1, 0-0 Big 12), .163
  46. Missouri (7-0, 0-0 SEC), .162
  47. Iowa (7-1, 0-0 Big Ten), .161
  48. Princeton (5-1, 0-0 Ivy), .161
  49. Creighton (5-2, 0-0 Big East), .161
  50. Kentucky (7-1, 0-0 SEC), .159

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of December 1, 2013)

  1. Big 12 (55-15, .786) .146 KPI
  2. Big Ten (73-16, .820) .140 KPI
  3. Big East (51-22, .699) .122 KPI
  4. Pac-12 (67-19, .779) .112 KPI
  5. Atlantic 10 (64-26, .711) .111 KPI
  6. ACC (80-28, .741)  .110 KPI
  7. American (50-17, .746) .103 KPI
  8. SEC (66-23, .742) .089 KPI
  9. Missouri Valley (46-26, .639) .067 KPI
  10. WCC (54-22, .711) .057 KPI

Top 20 #KPI Wins (through games of December 1, 2013)

  1. +0.85     11/14     #7 Arizona 69, #37 San Diego State 60
  2. +0.85     11/12     #15 VCU 59, #27 Virginia 56
  3. +0.84     12/1       #15 VCU 81, #35 Belmont 68
  4. +0.79     11/20     #13 Iowa State 90, #16 BYU 88
  5. +0.79     12/1       #8 Wichita State 70, #69 Saint Louis 65
  6. +0.75     11/29     #2 Villanova 63, #6 Kansas 59
  7. +0.72     11/27     #3 Syracuse 74, #14 Baylor 67
  8. +0.72     11/19     #53 DePaul 80, #171 Milwaukee 71
  9. +0.71     11/16     #20 George Washington 80, #81 Manhattan 74
  10. +0.70     11/11     #16 BYU 112, #76 Stanford 103
  11. +0.70     11/26     #202 Fordham 79, #81 Manhattan 75
  12. +0.70     11/8       #14 Baylor 70, #32 Colorado 60
  13. +0.70     11/26     #14 Baylor 67, #10 Dayton 66
  14. +0.69     12/1       #17 Memphis 73, #19 Oklahoma State 68
  15. +0.69     11/29     #88 Marquette 76, #20 George Washington 60
  16. +0.68     11/30     #16 BYU 85, #26 Utah State 74
  17. +0.68     11/22     #1 Massachusetts 81, #39 New Mexico 69
  18. +0.67     11/17     #35 Belmont 83, #41 North Carolina 80
  19. +0.66     11/20     #30 North Carolina Central 82, #63 North Carolina State 72 (OT)
  20. +0.66     11/16     #78 Minnesota 74, #100 Richmond 59

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 16.3 points per game.  That margin is 17.6 points per game in home/away games, 10.8 points per game in neutral site games and was at a season-high low 14.2 points per game during Week 4 (Nov 25-Dec 1).
  • The current adjustments are +0.20 for road teams, -0.21 for home teams and -0.06 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The average win is worth +0.20.  The average loss is worth -0.14.
  • Scoring (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (81.1 PPG); 2-WCC (80.8 PPG); 3-Big 12 (79.5 PPG); 4-Big Ten (79.2 PPG); 5-SEC (78.0 PPG); 6-Horizon (77.5 PPG); 7-American (77.4 PPG); 8-Mountain West (76.9 PPG); 9-ACC (76.8 PPG); 10-Big East (75.7 PPG)
  • Points Against (by conference): 1-Big Ten (65.2 PPG); 2-ACC (65.7 PPG); 3-American (66.9 PPG); 4-Big East (67.1 PPG); 5-SEC (67.3 PPG); 6-Big 12 (68.0 PPG); 7-Atlantic 10 (68.4 PPG); 8-Pac-12 (69.5 PPG); 9-Ivy (69.6 PPG); 10-MVC (69.8 PPG)
  • Points Per Possession (by conference): 1-Pac-12 (1.158); 2-Big Ten (1.142); 3-WCC (1.142); 4-Big 12 (1.131); 5-ACC (1.121); 6-SEC (1.119); 7-American (1.114); 8-Mountain West (1.109); 9-Horizon (1.094); 10-MVC (1.092)
  • 17.6% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non Division I teams.  Division I teams are 232-8 (.967) in those games by a margin of 89.8 PPG to 61.1 PPG.
  • Home teams are 858-241 (.781).  There have been 263 games (19.3% of all games) played at a neutral site.
  • Massachusetts and Harvard have 4 neutral site wins apiece (most of any team).  20 teams have three each.
  • Top-10 #KPI SOS: 1-Kansas; 2-Akron; 3-LSU; 4-Grambling; 5-Mount St. Mary’s; 6-DePaul; 7-Boston College; 8-BYU; 9-Louisiana-Monroe; 10-Massachusetts

This is the #KPI

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