WEEK 14 #KPI FOOTBALL (as of 12/1/13)

Welcome to Week 14 of the #KPI.  The picture is actually clearer than one may think. (Relax, the winner of Auburn-Missouri will jump Alabama Saturday, the loser will stay behind Alabama).  There are more scenarios listed below in the #KPI Notes.

#KPI Football Top 40 (through games of November 30, 2013)

  1. Florida State (12-0, 8-0 ACC), .361 (LW: 1)
  2. Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC), .315 (LW: 2)
  3. Missouri (11-1, 7-1 SEC), .312 (LW: 4)
  4. Auburn (11-1, 7-1 SEC), .306 (LW: 8)
  5. Arizona State (10-2, 8-1 Pac-12), .306 (LW: 3)
  6. Oklahoma State (10-1, 7-1 Big 12), .303 (LW: 5)
  7. Stanford (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12), .300 (LW: 7)
  8. South Carolina (10-2, 6-2 SEC), .290 (LW: 10)
  9. Ohio State (12-0, 8-0 Big Ten), .281 (LW: 9)
  10. Baylor (10-1, 7-1 Big 12), .264 (LW: 6)
  11. Michigan State (11-1, 8-0 Big Ten), .253 (LW: 14)
  12. UCLA (9-3, 6-3 Pac-12), .232 (LW: 22)
  13. Oregon (10-2, 7-2 Pac-12), .215 (LW: 16)
  14. Virginia Tech (8-4, 5-3 ACC), .207 (LW: 12)
  15. Clemson (10-2, 7-1 ACC), .207 (LW: 13)
  16. Wisconsin (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten), .205 (LW: 11)
  17. Central Florida (10-1, 7-0 American), .201 (LW: 18)
  18. Georgia (8-4, 5-3 SEC), .200 (LW: 27)
  19. Northern Illinois (12-0, 8-0 MAC), .198 (LW: 17)
  20. Notre Dame (8-4), .195 (LW: 15)
  21. LSU (9-3, 5-3 SEC), .185 (LW: 19)
  22. Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2 Big 12), .184 (LW: 21)
  23. Duke (10-2, 6-2 ACC), .179 (LW: 23)
  24. BYU (8-4), .173 (LW: 28)
  25. USC (9-4, 6-3 Pac-12), .161 (LW: 20)
  26. Iowa (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten), .153 (LW: 34)
  27. Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4 SEC), .152 (LW: 24)
  28. Washington (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12), .150 (LW: 30)
  29. Texas (8-3, 7-1 Big 12), .144 (LW: 33)
  30. Georgia Tech (7-5, 5-3 ACC), .142 (LW: 26)
  31. Mississippi (7-5, 3-5 SEC), .137 (LW: 25)
  32. Miami-FL (9-3, 5-3 ACC), .133 (LW: 32)
  33. Louisville (10-1, 6-1 American), .128 (LW: 35)
  34. Arizona (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12), .123 (LW: 31)
  35. Houston (8-4, 5-3 American), .122 (LW: 37)
  36. Fresno State (10-1, 7-1 Mountain West), .117 (LW: 29)
  37. Michigan (7-5, 3-5 Big Ten), .108 (LW: 36)
  38. Minnesota (8-4, 4-4 Big Ten), .105 (LW: 38)
  39. Mississippi State (6-6, 3-5 SEC), .086 (LW: 52)
  40. East Carolina (9-3, 6-2 Conference USA), .081 (LW: 39)

#KPI News

  • Florida State will finish No. 1 in the #KPI with a win over No. 23 Duke in the ACC Championship Game Saturday.  FSU’s current SOS is .036 (No. 77 overall) with a non-conference OWP of .250 (No. 122 overall).  They are 2nd in points scored (53.7 PPG) and first in points allowed (11.0 PPG).
  • The winner of the SEC Championship Game will pass Alabama in the #KPI.
  • There is a larger gap between #KPI No. 1 and No. 2 than there is between #KPI No. 2 and No. 9.  6 of those 8 teams will play Saturday (Alabama and South Carolina are idle).  The results of Saturday will have a major impact on separating that group for #KPI purposes.
  • Ohio State’s SOS is currently -.010 (No. 62 overall), but projects to rise to +.010 (No. 52) by simply playing No. 11 Michigan State (11-1).
  • 6 of the 7 conference championship games will be first-time matchups this season.  Only Stanford-Arizona State will be a rematch from a regular season game.
  • By playing Stanford Saturday, Arizona State projects to finish with the No. 1 SOS, followed by (2) Utah; (3) Mississippi State; (4) Purdue: (5) California: (6) Georgia: (7) Virginia; (8) Tennessee; (9) Florida and (10) Stanford
  • No team has more than one win against the #KPI top 10 (11 different teams have one win apiece).  Stanford and Notre Dame have four wins against #KPI top-25 teams while Arizona State and South Carolina have three apiece.
  • Seven teams are undefeated in true road games (Northern Illinois, Florida State, Missouri, Ohio State, Central Florida, Duke and Louisville).  Northern Illinois has played seven true road games, none of those other teams have played more than five.
  • #KPI Non-Conference Only: (1) South Carolina, (2) Utah, (3) Oklahoma, (4) Oklahoma State, (5) Arizona, (6) Baylor, (7) Virginia Tech, (8) Stanford, (9) Alabama, (10) Mississippi
  • #KPI Conference Games Only: (1) Florida State, (2) Michigan State, (3) Arizona State, (4) Missouri, (5) Alabama, (6) Auburn, (7) Ohio State, (8) Stanford, (9) Oklahoma State, (10) Baylor.  The top-10 teams in conference games only all fall within the top-11 #KPI overall.
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule (current) among top-10 #KPI teams: (6) Arizona State; (11) Stanford; (15) Auburn; (28) South Carolina; (30) Missouri; (52) Alabama; (62) Ohio State; (63) Oklahoma State; (66) Baylor; (77) Florida State.
  • #KPI Strength of Schedule (including games to be played Saturday) among top-10 #KPI teams: (1) Arizona State; (10) Stanford; (11) Auburn; (18) Missouri; (29) South Carolina; (52) Ohio State; (54) Alabama; (55) Oklahoma State; (61) Baylor; (67) Florida State.
  • There are now three undefeated teams remaining (Florida State, Ohio State, Northern Illinois). Pending BCS standings release later today, Florida State and Ohio State could control their own destiny relative to the BCS Championship Game.
  • Only 12 teams remain with zero or one loss.  8 of these 12 teams are in the top-11 of the #KPI.
  • How good has the SEC window been on CBS this season!  The SEC on CBS has produced 9 games decided by 7 points or less and 11 decided by 11 points or less (out of a total of 15 games).
  • The margin of 15.4 points per game this week was the second closest of the season (only Week 7 at 14.9 points per game was closer).
  • The Big Ten passed the ACC in the overall conference #KPI this week for the first time as a result of the ACC’s 1-3 non-conference record vs. the SEC on Saturday.

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 20.4 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG, Week 7: 14.9 PPG, Week 8: 19.1 PPG, Week 9: 20.0 PPG, Week 10: 18.6 PPG, Week 11: 19.9 PPG, Week 12: 20.1 PPG, Week 13: 22.6 PPG, Week 14: 15.4 PPG).
  • The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.3 PPG. The margin in conference games is +17.7 PPG.
  • The current adjustments are +0.09 for road teams, -0.11 for home teams and -0.05 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • Margin By Conference (Conference Games Only): 1-Sun Belt (12.6); 2-American (13.9); 3-SEC (15.1); 4-Mountain West (16.9); 5-Big Ten (17.2); 6-ACC (18.1); 7-Big 12 (18.7); 8-Pac-12 (19.5); 9-Conference USA (19.5); 10-MAC (21.6)
  • Points Per Game By Conference (All Games): 1-Pac-12 (33.4); 2-Mountain West (32.4); 3-Big 12 (31.9); 4-SEC (31.3); 5-Big Ten (30.9); 6-ACC (30.0); 7-Sun Belt (28.1); 8-American (27.2); 9-Conference USA (26.4); 10-MAC (25.4)
  • Points Allowed By Conference (All Games): 1-ACC (24.3); 2-SEC (24.4); 3-American (25.0); 4-Big Ten (25.4); 5-Big 12 (27.0); 6-Pac-12 (27.8); 7-MAC (28.7); 8-Conference USA (29.0); 9-Sun Belt (29.4); 10-Mountain West (32.6)
  • Penn State (+21), Marshall (+20), Bowling Green (+17), San Jose State (+15) and Mississippi State (+13) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week.  Memphis (-19), Louisiana-Lafayette (-15), Rutgers (-12), Boston College (-11) and Toledo (-11) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.
  • The top outlier games of the year (based on expected results) are (1) West Virginia 30, Oklahoma State 21; (2) Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19; (3) North Dakota State 24, Kansas State 21; (4) Southern Miss 62, UAB 27; (5) South Florida 26; Cincinnati 20

TOP 20 #KPI WINS (through games of November 30, 2013)

  1. +1.14     10/19     #1 Florida State 51, #15 Clemson 14
  2. +0.99     9/14       #30 Georgia Tech 38, #23 Duke 14
  3. +0.95     11/23     #6 Oklahoma State 49, #10 Baylor 17
  4. +0.90     10/26     #8 South Carolina 27, #3 Missouri 24 (2 OT)
  5. +0.85     11/16     #6 Oklahoma State 38, #29 Texas 13
  6. +0.83     11/30     #12 UCLA 35, #25 USC 14
  7. +0.82     9/21       #21 LSU 35, #4 Auburn 21
  8. +0.80     9/28       #8 South Carolina 28, #17 Central Florida 25
  9. +0.80     11/2       #16 Wisconsin 28, #26 Iowa 9
  10. +0.79     11/7       #10 Baylor 41, #22 Oklahoma 12
  11. +0.78     11/23     #34 Arizona 42, #13 Oregon 16
  12. +0.78     11/9       #14 Virginia Tech 42, #32 Miami-FL 24
  13. +0.76     10/18     #17 Central Florida 38, #33 Louisville 35
  14. +0.75     9/28       #97 West Virginia 30, #6 Oklahoma State 21
  15. +0.75     9/14       #31 Mississippi 44, #29 Texas 23
  16. +0.74     8/31       #2 Alabama 35, #14 Virginia Tech 10
  17. +0.74     11/30     #43 Penn State 31, #16 Wisconsin 24
  18. +0.72     9/21       #7 Stanford 42, #5 Arizona State 28
  19. +0.72     10/12     #13 Oregon 45, #28 Washington 24
  20. +0.72     11/30     #4 Auburn 34, #2 Alabama 28

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS (through games of November 30, 2013)

  1. SEC (103-65, .613 / 47-9, .839 non-conference) .130 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (85-60, .586 / 31-6, .838 non-conference) .114 KPI
  3. Big Ten (85-59, .590 / 37-11, .771 non-conference) .089 KPI
  4. ACC (97-71, .577 / 41-15, .732 non-conference) .078 KPI
  5. Big 12 (65-51, .560 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .039 KPI
  6. American (56-56, .500 / 20-20, .500 non-conference)  -.061 KPI
  7. Mountain West (68-76, .472 / 20-28, .417 non-conference) -.079 KPI
  8. Sun Belt (46-48, .489 / 19-21, .475 non-conference) -.090 KPI
  9. MAC (72-84, .462 / 20-32, .385 non-conference) -.090 KPI
  10. Conference USA (76-92, .452 / 20-36, .357 non-conference) -.103 KPI

TOP UPCOMING KPI GAMES – WEEK 15

  1. SEC Championship: #3 Missouri vs. #4 Auburn (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, CBS)
  2. Pac-12 Championship: #7 Stanford at #5 Arizona State (Saturday 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  3. Big Ten Championship: #9 Ohio State vs. #11 Michigan State (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, FOX)
  4. ACC Championship: #23 Duke at #1 Florida State (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
  5. #22 Oklahoma at #6 Oklahoma State (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ABC)

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 14): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-14.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 14): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-14.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 14): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-14.pdf

This is the #KPI.

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