WEEK 2 #KPI BASKETBALL (as of 11/25/13)

Welcome to Week 2 of the basketball version of the #KPI.  Football data through Week 13 can be found here or here.  #KPI Basketball stays updated here as well.  Now that we are already 16% of the way through the season, numbers are starting to mean something.

Raw statistical data by day, week and margin through games of Sunday, November 24 can be found here: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/college-basketball-statistical-trends-through-11-24-2013.pdf.  Numbers by each conference can be found on the second page of this PDF: https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-2.pdf

Data below compares the full season data from 2012-13 to full season data to date for the 2013-14 season (through Sunday, November 24): Note that because strength of schedule increases as the season progresses, there is increased margin for error.

#KPI Notes:

  • Virtually all numbers that have trended upward this season have begun to normalize.  Points (74.1 PPG in Week 2; 73.1 PPG in Week 3), Possessions (71.0 in Week 2; 69.9 in Week 3), Field Goal Attempts (58.1 in Week 2 to 57.2 in Week 3), Free Throw Attempts (24.0 in Week 2 to 23.3 in Week 3) and Personal Fouls (20.5 in Week 2 to 19.9 in Week 3) are all trending downward.
  • Teams are averaging 21.3 fouls and 25.4 free throw attempts in games decided by 5 points or less.  Teams are averaging 19.4 fouls and 22.2 free throw attempts in games decided by more than 20 points.
  • Winning teams are averaging 27.0 free throw attempts and 19.0 fouls per game.  Losing teams are averaging 20.7 free throw attempts and 21.9 fouls per game.
  • Winning teams averaging 82.1 points, 28.1-57.9 FG (49%), 6.8-18.1 3-pt (38%), 19.0-27.0 FT (70%), 39.9 rebounds, 15.1 assists, 7.4 steals, 4.5 blocks, 12.4 turnovers and 19.0 fouls per game.
  • Losing teams averaging 64.9 points, 22.6-57.8 FG (39%), 5.9-19.8 3-pt (30%), 13.9-20.7 FT (67%), 32.7 rebounds, 10.8 assists, 5.8 steals, 2.9 blocks, 14.3 turnovers and 21.9 fouls per game.

Points Per Game: Up 8.9% (6.01 PPG); from 67.5 PPG to 73.5 PPG: Through the first 17 days of the 2012-13 season, teams were averaging 67.6 PPG (an 8.8% increase this year compared to the first 17 days of last year). In 2012-13, 52.3% of points came from made 2-pt FGs, 27.4% from made 3-pt FGs and 20.3% from made free throws.  In 2013-14, 51.6% of points have come from made 2-pt FGs, 26.0% from made 3-pt FGs and 22.4% from made free throws.  The net increase is +2.66 points from made 2′s, +0.60 points from made 3′s and +2.73 points from made free throws.  73.5 PPG is the highest average since 1994-95 (74.2 PPG).

Average Margin Per Game: +17.1 PPG: The average margin in 2012-13 was +13.1 PPG, but was +16.2 PPG through the first 17 days of the season.

Possessions Per Game: Up 6.2% (4.11 possession per game); from 66.7 to 70.8 possessions per game.  More fouls and free throw attempts per game makes for shorter possessions, and hence more possessions.

Points Per Possession: Up 2.6%; from 1.012 to 1.038: This is likely the result of a greater likelihood of making a free throw or two to making a field goal.

Field Goal Attempts: Up 5.1% (2.83 FGA per game); from 55.0 to 57.8 FGA: Team field goal percentage is at 43.8%, up from 43.3% last year.  Field goal attempts per possession are down slightly (0.815 FGA per possession in 2012-13 to 0.787 FGA per possession this year).  Field goal attempts are at their highest mark since 1995-96 (58.5 FGA/game).

3-pt Field Goal Attempts: Up 4.6% (0.83 3-ptA per game); from 18.1 to 19.0 3-ptA: 3-pt field goal percentage is at 33.6%, down from 34.1% last year.  3-pt field goal attempts are at their highest number since 2007-08 (19.1 per game).

Free Throw Attempts: Up 20.9% (4.12 FTA per game); from 19.8 to 23.9 FTA: Team free throw percentage is at 68.8%, down from 69.3% last year.  Teams are making 2.73 more free throws per game this year.  Free throw attempts are at their highest mark since 1971-72 (25.6 FTA/game).

Rebounds: Up 5.2% (1.80 rebounds per game); from 34.5 to 36.3 rebounds: Possessions and shots increase, so it only makes sense for rebounds to proportionately increase as well.

Assists: Up 1.0% (0.13 assists per game); from 12.8 to 13.0 assists: Assists per made field goal are down slightly from 53.8% to 51.1% of made baskets being paired with an assist.

Turnovers: Up 0.1% (0.01 turnovers per game); 13.30 to 13.31 turnovers: Turnovers per possession are down 6.1%.  19.9% of possessions ended in a turnover in 2012-13 while 18.8% of possessions have resulted in a turnover so far in 2013-14.

Personal Fouls: Up 15.6% (2.76 fouls per game); 17.7 to 20.4 fouls: Teams are averaging 0.86 fouls per free throw attempt, up slightly from 0.89 fouls per free throw attempt last year.  This means teams are getting to the bonus more often.  Personal fouls are at their highest mark since 1978-79 (20.6 fouls per game).

Comparative analysis includes data from all games involving Division-I teams for the 2013-14 season.  Historical data is courtesy of the NCAA and can be found here.

#KPI Basketball Top 25 (through games of November 24, 2013)

#KPI by Team (through Week 2): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-team-week-2.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 2): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-conference-week-2.pdf

#KPI by Game (through Week 2): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-basketball-by-game-week-2.pdf

  1. Massachusetts (6-0), .452
  2. Baylor (4-0), .342
  3. George Washington (4-0), .339
  4. Baylor (4-0), .339
  5. Michigan State (6-0), .315
  6. Utah State (4-0), .315
  7. Southern Miss (6-0), .297
  8. Dayton (4-0), .285
  9. Wisconsin (6-0), .285
  10. Iowa State (4-0), .284
  11. St. Mary’s-CA (5-0), .270
  12. Belmont (6-1), .252
  13. Arkansas (3-0), .252
  14. Connecticut (6-0), .251
  15. Pacific (4-0), .243
  16. Xavier (4-0), .230
  17. Butler (4-0), .229
  18. Manhattan (3-1), .224
  19. Oklahoma (4-1), .222
  20. UCLA (5-0), .217
  21. Ohio State (4-0), .214
  22. DePaul (3-1), .207
  23. Texas (4-0), .205
  24. Florida State (5-1), .201
  25. Colorado (6-1), .196

Conference #KPI Rankings (through games of November 24, 2013)

  1. Big East (38-7, .844) .143 KPI
  2. Big 12 (37-8, .822) .138 KPI
  3. Big Ten (56-8, .875) .134 KPI
  4. Pac-12 (48-9, .842) .103 KPI
  5. Atlantic 10 (47-16, .746) .097 KPI
  6. West Coast (39-11, .780)  .081 KPI
  7. American (39-10, .796) .080 KPI
  8. ACC (57-20, .740) .072 KPI
  9. SEC (44-15, .746) .069 KPI
  10. Missouri Valley (31-17, .646) .059 KPI

Top 10 #KPI Wins (through games of November 24, 2013)

  1. +0.86     11/16     #3 George Washington 80, #18 Manhattan 74
  2. +0.74     11/17     #12 Belmont 83, #29 North Carolina 80
  3. +0.72     11/13     #7 Southern Miss 75, #22 DePaul 68
  4. +0.70     11/23     #5 Michigan State 87, #19 Oklahoma 76
  5. +0.70     11/11     #46 BYU 112, #76 Stanford 103
  6. +0.69     11/13     #27 Bucknell 90, #72 Penn State 80
  7. +0.69     11/19     #22 DePaul 80, #159 Milwaukee 71
  8. +0.66     11/8       #4 Baylor 72, #25 Colorado 60
  9. +0.65     11/9       #127 Western Michigan 70, #58 New Mexico State 64
  10. +0.64     11/20     #267 San Jose State 83, #193 Pepperdine 77

Bold Indicates Home Team, Italics Indicate Neutral Site

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 17.1 points per game.
  • The current adjustments are +0.19 for road teams, -0.22 for home teams and -0.03 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The average win is worth +0.12.  The average loss is worth -0.15.
  • Scoring (by conference): 1: Pac-12 (81.9 PPG); 2: WCC (81.7 PPG); 3: Big Ten (80.6 PPG); 4: Big 12 (80.2 PPG); 5: SEC (79.6 PPG)
  • Points Against (by conference): 1: Big Ten (64.4 PPG); 2: Big East (65.6 PPG); 3: American (66.3 PPG); 4: ACC (66.6 PPG); 5: Pac-12 (66.9 PPG)
  • Points Per Possession (by conference): 1: Pac-12 (1.164); 2: Big Ten (1.157); 3: Big 12 (1.139); 4: WCC (1.137); 5: ACC (1.130)
  • 19.2% of all games involving a Division I team are currently against Non Division I teams.  Division I teams are 188-4 (.979) in those games.
  • Home teams are 679-178 (.792).  There have been 120 games (12.3% of all games) played at a neutral site.
  • Massachusetts has 4 neutral site wins (most of any team).  Michigan State, Connecticut, Charlotte and Loyola Marymount have three each.
  • Projecting out over the full season, Wisconsin and Kansas project to finish with the top two strength of schedule.

This is the #KPI

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