WEEK 12 #KPI FOOTBALL (as of 11/17/13)

Welcome to Week 12 of the #KPI.  Individual team resumes for the #KPI top-25 are below:

#KPI Football Top 25 (November 17, 2013)

1. Florida State (10-0, 8-0 ACC), .429 (Last Week #1)  Resume: at #9 Clemson (+1.30), #34 Miami-FL (+.59), #54 Syracuse (+.54), at #51 Pittsburgh (+.43), at #57 Boston College (+.42), #70 Maryland (+.42), at #79 Wake Forest (+.36), #92 Nevada (+.19), #98 North Carolina State (+.10), #110 FCS/Bethune-Cookman (+.05)

2. Alabama (10-0, 7-0 SEC), .395 (Last Week #2)  Resume: #23 Mississippi (+.85), at #18 Texas A&M (+.74), vs #15 Virginia Tech (+.68), #29 LSU (+.57), at #60 Mississippi State (+.33), #96 Colorado State (+.26), #58 Tennessee (+.25), #73 Arkansas (+.15), at #101 Kentucky (+.11), #125 Georgia State (+.00)

3. Stanford (8-2, 6-2 Pac-12), .322 (Last Week #3)  Resume: #16 UCLA (+.70), #11 Oregon (+.69), #8 Arizona State (+.64), at #62 Oregon State (+.46), vs. #44 Washington State (+.36), #35 Washington (+.33), #83 San Jose State (+.22), at #113 Army (+.11), at #19 USC (-.05), at #38 Utah (-.25)

4. Baylor (9-0, 6-0 Big 12), .321 (Last Week #4)  Resume: #27 Oklahoma (+.75), #50 Buffalo (+.59), vs. #49 Texas Tech (+.45), at #52 Kansas State (+.45), #80 Louisiana-Monroe (+.27), at #94 Kansas (+.18), #87 West Virginia (+.11), #110 FCS/Wofford (+.05), #107 Iowa State (+.04)

5. Auburn (10-1, 6-1 SEC), .282 (Last Week #10)  Resume: at #18 Texas A&M (+.72), #23 Mississippi (+.49), #65 Arkansas State (+.41), #21 Georgia (+.38), at #58 Tennessee (+.33), #44 Washington State (+.24), #77 Florida Atlantic (+.23), at #73 Arkansas (+.18), #60 Mississippi State (+.16), #110 FCS/Western Carolina (+.05), at #29 LSU (-.07)

6. Missouri (9-1, 5-1 SEC), .275 (Last Week #6)  Resume: at #21 Georgia (+.61), at #47 Vanderbilt (+.51), #40 Toledo (+.44), #65 Arkansas State (+.35), at #59 Indiana (+.28), #58 Tennessee (+.28), #61 Florida (+.22), at #101 Kentucky (+.09), #110 FCS/Murray State (+.04), #10 South Carolina (-.06)

7. Ohio State (10-0, 6-0 Big Ten), .267 (Last Week #5)  Resume: #20 Wisconsin (+.57), #50 Buffalo (+.46), #53 Penn State (+.43), #37 Iowa (+.34), #90 San Diego State (+.34), at #74 Northwestern (+.21), at #78 Illinois (+.15), at #100 Purdue (+.09), #110 FCS/Florida A&M (+.05), at #106 California (+.04)

8. Arizona State (8-2, 6-1 Pac-12), .262 (Last Week #11)  Resume: #19 USC (+.54), #20 Wisconsin (+.52),  at #44 Washington State (+.46), #35 Washington (+.43), #62 Oregon State (+.32), at #38 Utah (+.27), #81 Colorado (+.16), #110 FCS/Sacramento State (+.05), at #3 Stanford (-.02), vs. #24 Notre Dame (-.11)

9. Clemson (9-1, 7-1 ACC), .259 (Last Week #12)  Resume: at #54 Syracuse (+.54), #24 Georgia Tech (+.44), #21 Georgia (+.37), at #70 Maryland (+.37), #57 Boston College (+.31), #79 Wake Forest (+.21), at #98 North Carolina State (+.15), at #89 Virginia (+.15), #110 FCS/South Carolina State (+.04), #1 Florida State (-.00)

10. South Carolina (8-2, 6-2 SEC), .259 (Last Week #7)  Resume: at #6 Missouri (+.88), at #12 Central Florida (+.78), #48 North Carolina (+.32), #47 Vanderbilt (+.31), at #73 Arkansas (+.23), #60 Mississippi State (+.20), #61 Florida (+.19), #101 Kentucky (+.04), at #21 Georgia (-.10), at #58 Tennessee (-.25)

11. Oregon (9-1, 6-1 Pac-12), .251 (Last Week #9)  Resume: #16 UCLA (+.74), at #35 Washington (+.59), #44 Washington State (+.26), #58 Tennessee (+.24), #38 Utah (+.23), at #81 Colorado (+.25), at #89 Virginia (+.15), #110 FCS/Nicholls State (+.05), #106 California (+.02), at #3 Stanford (-.02)

12. Central Florida (8-1, 5-0 American), .222 (Last Week #13)  Resume: at #30 Louisville (+.76), #32 Houston (+.49), at #53 Penn State (+.40), at #88 Memphis (+.19), #91 Akron (+.14), at #109 Temple (+.05), at #124 Florida International (+.02), #120 Connecticut (+.01), #10 South Carolina (-.06)

13. Michigan State (9-1, 6-0 Big Ten), .220 (Last Week #22)  Resume: #31 Michigan (+.66), at #42 Nebraska (+.54), at #37 Iowa (+.54), at #78 Illinois (+.22), #59 Indiana (+.17), #112 South Florida (+.04), #100 Purdue (+.04), #110 FCS/Youngstown State (+.04), #122 Western Michigan (+.01), at #24 Notre Dame (-.07)

14. Oklahoma State (9-1, 6-1 Big 12), .214 (Last Week #25)  Resume: at #33 Texas (+.75), at #49 Texas Tech (+.54), at #75 Texas-San Antonio (+.30), vs. #60 Mississippi State (+.29), #52 Kansas State (+.28), #93 TCU (+.14), #94 Kansas (+.11), at #107 Iowa State (+.07), #110 FCS/Lamar (+.05), at #87 West Virginia (-.40)

15. Virginia Tech (7-4, 4-3 ACC), .208 (Last Week #8)   Resume: at #34 Miami-FL (+.70), at #46 East Carolina (+.64), at #24 Georgia Tech (+.63), #63 Marshall (+.32), #48 North Carolina (+.27), #51 Pittsburgh (+.25), #110 FCS/Western Carolina (+.05), vs. #2 Alabama (-.01), #28 Duke (-.09), at #57 Boston College (-.17), #70 Maryland (-.31)

16. UCLA (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12), .200 (Last Week: #16)  Resume: at #42 Nebraska (+.61), at #56 Arizona (+.45), #35 Washington (+.35), at #38 Utah (+.29), #92 Nevada (+.15), #81 Colorado (+.13), #106 California (+.02), #118 New Mexico State (+.02), at #11 Oregon (-.01), at #3 Stanford (-.02)

17. BYU (7-3), .196 (Last Week #14)  Resume: at #32 Houston (+.61), at #64 Utah State (+.53), #33 Texas (+.47), #24 Georgia Tech (+.46), #45 Boise State (+.45), #67 Middle Tennessee (+.33), #110 FCS/Idaho State (+.04), at #20 Wisconsin (-.03), #38 Utah (-.42), at #89 Virginia (-.47)

18. Texas A&M (8-2, 4-2 SEC), .189 (Last Week #21)  Resume: at #23 Mississippi (+.61), #55 Rice (+.40), #47 Vanderbilt (+.37), #60 Mississippi State (+.16), at #73 Arkansas (+.15), #97 SMU (+.15), #110 FCS/Sam Houston State (+.04), #119 UTEP (+.03), #2 Alabama (-.00), #5 Auburn (-.02)

19. USC (8-3, 5-2 Pac-12), .184 (Last Week #30)  Resume: #3 Stanford (+.60), at #62 Oregon State (+.51), #57 Boston College (+.41), #56 Arizona (+.31), #38 Utah (+.29), #64 Utah State (+.28), at #106 California (+.04), at #117 Hawaii (+.03), at #8 Arizona State (-.03), at #22 Notre Dame (-.07), #44 Washington State (-.34)

20. Wisconsin (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten), .184 (Last Week #20)  Resume: at #37 Iowa (+.63), #17 BYU (+.52), #59 Indiana (+.27), #74 Northwestern (+.19), at #78 Illinois (+.15), #110 FCS/Tennessee Tech (+.05), #100 Purdue (+.04), #121 Massachusetts (+.01), at #7 Ohio State (-.00), at #8 Arizona State (-.02)

21. Georgia (6-4, 4-3 SEC), .182 (Last Week #17)  Resume: #10 South Carolina (+.59), #39 North Texas (+.50), #29 LSU (+.42), at #58 Tennessee (+.24), vs. #61 Florida (+.20), #110 FCS/Appalachian State (+.04), at #9 Clemson (-.01), at #5 Auburn (-.01), #6 Missouri (-.02), at #47 Vanderbilt (-.15)

#22 Notre Dame (7-3), .176 (Last Week #24)  Resume: #13 Michigan State (+.64), vs. #8 Arizona State (+.61), #19 USC (+.52), #68 Navy (+.24), at #116 Air Force (+.06), at #100 Purdue (+.05), #109 Temple (+.03), at #31 Michigan (-.07), #27 Oklahoma (-.08), at #51 Pittsburgh (-.23)

#23 Mississippi (7-3, 3-3 SEC), .175 (Last Week #18)  Resume: at #33 Texas (+.66), #29 LSU (+.43), at #47 Vanderbilt (+.41), #85 Troy (+.18), #73 Arkansas (+.09), #110 FCS/SE Missouri State (+.04), #115 Idaho (+.02), at #2 Alabama (-.00), at #5 Auburn (-.01), #18 Texas A&M (-.07)

#24 Georgia Tech (6-4, 5-3 ACC), .175 (Last Week #15)  Resume: at #28 Duke (+.94), #54 Syracuse (+.46), #48 North Carolina (+.26), #51 Pittsburgh (+.25), at #89 Virginia (+.10), #110 FCS/Elon (+.05), at #9 Clemson (-.01), at #17 BYU (-.07), at #34 Miami-FL (-.08), #15 Virginia Tech (-.15)

#25 Fresno State (9-0, 6-0 Mountain West), .171 (Last Week #23)  Resume: #45 Boise State (+.35), at #90 San Diego State (+.33), at #99 Wyoming (+.24), #71 Rutgers (+.19), #86 UNLV (+.19), #92 Nevada (+.13), at #115 Idaho (+.05), #110 FCS/Cal Poly (+.03), at #117 Hawaii (+.02)

  • 26.   Northern Illinois (10-0, 6-0 MAC), .167
  • 27.   Oklahoma (8-2, 5-2 Big 12), .162
  • 28.   Duke (8-2, 4-2 ACC), .154
  • 29.   LSU (7-3, 3-3 SEC), .149
  • 30.   Louisville (9-1, 5-1 American), .147
  • 31.   Michigan (7-3, 3-3 Big Ten), .145
  • 32.   Houston (7-3, 4-2 American), .137
  • 33.   Texas (7-3, 6-1 Big 12), .135
  • 34.   Miami-FL (7-3, 3-3 ACC), .124
  • 35.   Washington (6-4, 3-4 Pac-12), .124
  • 36.   Minnesota (8-2, 4-2 Big Ten), .122
  • 37.   Iowa (6-4, 3-3 Big Ten), .111
  • 38.   Utah (4-6, 1-6 Pac-12), .106
  • 39.   North Texas (7-3, 5-1 Conference USA), .101
  • 40.   Toledo (7-3, 5-1 MAC), .094

#KPI News

  • The top-4 remained the same (despite Stanford’s loss), though Auburn moves up to No. 5.  The Alabama-Auburn winner on Nov. 30 will determine the SEC West champion and provide a massive numbers boost (quality win over one another AND opportunity to play SEC East champion). If Missouri wins their next two games, they play in the SEC Championship game.  If they lose one of the next two, South Carolina goes to Atlanta.
  • There are now six undefeated teams: #1 Florida State, #2 Alabama, #4 Baylor, #7 Ohio State, #25 Fresno State and #26 Northern Illinois.  Only 14 teams remain with one or fewer losses (11 of the top-14 #KPI teams have zero or one loss).
  • Florida State and Alabama continue to control their own destiny for the championship game.  Stanford’s loss to USC brought them to a virtual tie with Baylor (another Baylor win will certain allow them to pass Stanford).  Ohio State (No. 34) has the toughest remaining SOS of the undefeated teams, followed by Baylor (No. 35), Alabama (No.56), Florida State (No.99), Northern Illinois (No. 104) and Fresno State (No. 111).  These numbers do not include possible championship game opponents.
  • Remember that field goal attempt at the end of Wisconsin-Arizona State on September 14? Yeah, it actually had a significant impact. If Wisconsin had made that field goal, they would be No. 10 (+10) and Arizona State would be No. 16 (-8).  Stanford was helped (which hurt Baylor). Ohio State was hurt (which helped Missouri and Baylor).
  • Michigan State and Ohio State can both clinch bids to the Big Ten championship game next week.  MSU needs to beat Northwestern, beat Minnesota or have Wisconsin beat Minnesota.  Ohio State needs to beat Indiana, beat Michigan or have Wisconsin lose one of their last two games.
  • Florida State has clinched the ACC Atlantic Division.  The Coastal Division is a mess.  Patrick Stevens (@D1scourse) has outlined the scenarios here.
  • Alabama, Stanford, Auburn and Notre Dame each have 3 wins against #KPI top-25 teams.  Arizona State, Clemson, South Carolina and Utah each have 2 wins against #KPI top-25 teams.  Tennessee and Utah have each played 6 games against #KPI top-25 teams.
  • Every team in the AP Top 25 is in the top-30 of the #KPI except for #36 Minnesota (RV AP Poll/#23 USA Today Coaches Poll)
  • #15 Virginia Tech, #17 BYU, #21 Georgia, #22 Notre dame and #24 Georgia Tech are in the #KPI top-25 but are not ranked.
  • Remaining SOS: 1-Auburn, 2-California, 3-TCU, 4-Notre Dame, 5-Arizona, 6-Oklahoma State, 7-UCLA, 8-Texas A&M, 9-Minnesota, 10-Nevada
  • MCSOS by KPI (Missed Conference Strength of Schedule) in order of easiest to most difficult: 1-South Carolina, 2-Oregon, 3-Florida, 4-Colorado, 5-USC, 6-California, 7-Arizona, 8-Michigan State, t-9-Missouri, t-9-Vanderbilt

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 20.6 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG, Week 7: 14.9 PPG, Week 8: 19.1 PPG, Week 9: 20.0 PPG, Week 10: 18.6 PPG, Week 11: 19.9 PPG, Week 12: 20.1 PPG).
  • The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.2 PPG. The margin in conference games is +17.7 PPG.
  • The current adjustments are +0.10 for road teams, -0.12 for home teams and -0.06 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The Pac-12 is the highest scoring conference (33.3 PPG). The SEC is second (32.4 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (32.0 PPG).
  • The ACC is allowing the fewest points (24.1 PPG). The SEC is second (24.8 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (25.4 PPG).
  • Bowling Green (+15), Maryland (+15), Toledo (+14), Cincinnati (+14) and Washington State (+12) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week.  Arizona (-14), San Jose State (-12), West Virginia (-12) and Georgia Tech (-9) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.
  • The top outlier games of the year (based on expected results) are (1) Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19, (2) North Dakota State 24, Kansas State 21,  (3) Eastern Washington 49, Oregon State 46, (4) West Virginia 30, Oklahoma State 21 and (5) Iowa 23, Minnesota 7.
  • The top outlier games for FBS vs. FBS games only are (1) West Virginia 30, Oklahoma State 21, (2) Iowa 23, Minnesota 7, (3) Arkansas 34, Louisiana-Lafayette 14, (4) Utah 20, BYU 13 and (5) Virginia 19, BYU 16.

TOP 20 #KPI WINS

  1. +1.30     10/19     #1 Florida State 51, #9 Clemson 14
  2. +0.96     9/28       #37 Iowa 23, #36 Minnesota 7
  3. +0.94     9/14       #24 Georgia Tech 38, #28 Duke 14
  4. +0.88     10/26     #10 South Carolina 27, #6 Missouri 24 (2 OT)
  5. +0.85     9/28       #2 Alabama 25, #23 Mississippi 0
  6. +0.78     9/21       #29 LSU 35, #5 Auburn 21
  7. +0.78     9/28       #10 South Carolina 28, #12 Central Florida 25
  8. +0.76     10/18     #12 Central Florida 38, #30 Louisville 35
  9. +0.75     11/16     #14 Oklahoma State 38, #33 Texas 13
  10. +0.75     11/7       #4 Baylor 41, #27 Oklahoma 12
  11. +0.74     9/14       #2 Alabama 49, #18 Texas A&M 42
  12. +0.74     10/26     #11 Oregon 42, #16 UCLA 14
  13. +0.73     9/7         #44 Washington State 10, #19 USC 7
  14. +0.72     10/19     #5 Auburn 45, #18 Texas A&M 41
  15. +0.72     9/21       #38 Utah 20, #17 BYU 13
  16. +0.70     10/19     #3 Stanford 24, #16 UCLA 10
  17. +0.70     9/28       #27 Oklahoma 35, #22 Notre Dame 21
  18. +0.70     11/9       #15 Virginia Tech 42, #34 Miami-FL 24
  19. +0.70     10/5       #31 Michigan 42, #36 Minnesota 13
  20. +0.69     10/12     #33 Texas 36, #27 Oklahoma 20

Bold Indicates Home Team

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS

  1. SEC (88-53, .624 / 42-7, .857 non-conference) .139 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (73-49, .598 / 30-6, .833 non-conference) .112 KPI
  3. ACC (83-58, .589 / 36-11, .766 non-conference) .097 KPI
  4. Big Ten (73-47, .608 / 37-11, .771 non-conference) .087 KPI
  5. Big 12 (58-44, .569 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .045 KPI
  6. American (47-47, .500 / 20-20, .500 non-conference)  -.048 KPI
  7. Mountain West (57-64, .471 / 19-26, .422 non-conference) -.086 KPI
  8. Sun Belt (39-41, .500 / 19-21, .475 non-conference) -.093 KPI
  9. MAC (61-73, .455 / 20-32, .385 non-conference) -.101 KPI
  10. Conference USA (61-79, .436 / 18-36, .333 non-conference) -.116 KPI

TOP UPCOMING KPI GAMES – WEEK 13

  1. #4 Baylor at #14 Oklahoma State (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
  2. #8 Arizona State at #16 UCLA (Saturday TBA)
  3. #6 Missouri at #23 Mississippi (Saturday 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  4. #17 BYU at #22 Notre Dame (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
  5. #18 Texas A&M at #29 LSU (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  6. #20 Wisconsin at #36 Minnesota (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  7. #59 Indiana at #7 Ohio State (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ABC/ESPN2 Reverse Mirror)
  8. #26 Northern Illinois at #40 Toledo (Wednesday 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  9. #11 Oregon at #56 Arizona (Saturday TBA)
  10. #31 Michigan at #37 Iowa (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, BTN)

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 12): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-12.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 12): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-12.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 12): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-12.pdf

This is the #KPI.

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