WEEK 11 #KPI FOOTBALL (as of 11/10/13)

Welcome to Week 11 of the #KPI.  Individual team resumes for the #KPI top-25 are below:

#KPI Football Top 25 (November 10, 2013)

1. Florida State (9-0, 7-0 ACC), .429 (Last Week #1)  Resume: at #12 Clemson (+1.27), #31 Miami-FL (+.69), at #43 Pittsburgh (+.55), at #57 Boston College (+.38), at #80 Wake Forest (+.35), #85 Maryland (+.32), #99 Nevada (+.13), #94 North Carolina State (+.12), #110 FCS/Bethune-Cookman (+.04)

2. Alabama (9-0, 6-0 SEC), .399 (Last Week #2)  Resume: vs. #8 Virginia Tech (+.82), #18 Mississippi (+.78), at #21 Texas A&M (+.71), #27 LSU (+.54), #53 Tennessee (+.25), #97 Colorado State (+.20), #73 Arkansas (+.18), at #101 Kentucky (+.11), #125 Georgia State (+.00)

3. Stanford (8-1, 6-1 Pac-12), .375 (Last Week #3)  Resume: #9 Oregon (+.68), #16 UCLA (+.68), #11 Arizona State (+.64), at #64 Oregon State (+.52), #29 Washington (+.38), #71 San Jose State (+.30), vs. Washington State (+.29), at #113 Army (+.11), at #32 Utah (-.23)

4. Baylor (8-0, 5-0 Big 12), .319 (Last Week #11)  Resume: #19 Oklahoma (+.76), #45 Buffalo (+.71), at #50 Kansas State (+.43), at #77 Louisiana-Monroe (+.27), at #92 Kansas (+.16), #75 West Virginia (+.14), #110 FCS/Wofford (+.05), #108 Iowa State (+.04)

5. Ohio State (9-0, 5-0 Big Ten), .291 (Last Week #7)  Resume: #45 Buffalo (+.56), #20 Wisconsin (+.55), #51 Penn State (+.40), #38 Iowa (+.35), #89 San Diego State (+.32), at #68 Northwestern (+.25), at #98 Purdue (+.10), at #104 California (+.05), #110 FCS/Florida A&M (+.05)

6. Missouri (9-1, 5-1 SEC), .276 (Last Week #5)  Resume: at #17 Georgia (+.66), at #46 Vanderbilt (+.49), #54 Toledo (+.40), at #65 Indiana (+.32), #53 Tennessee (+.28), #74 Arkansas State (+.28), #58 Florida (+.26), at #101 Kentucky (+.10), #110 FCS/Murray State (+.04), #7 South Carolina (-.06)

7. South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 SEC), .268 (Last Week #8)  Resume: at #6 Missouri (+.87), at #13 Central Florida (+.78), #46 Vanderbilt (+.30), at #73 Arkansas (+.27), #55 North Carolina (+.26), #62 Mississippi State (+.23), #101 Kentucky (+.04), at #17 Georgia (-.08), at #53 Tennessee (-.25)

8. Virginia Tech (7-3, 4-2 ACC), .267 (Last Week #21)  Resume: at #31 Miami-FL (+.80), at #15 Georgia Tech (+.70), at #47 East Carolina (+.60), #43 Pittsburgh (+.34), #66 Marshall (+.30), #55 North Carolina (+.22), #110 FCS/Western Carolina (+.05), vs. #2 Alabama (-.01), #34 Duke (-.13), at #57 Boston College (-.20)

9. Oregon (8-1, 5-1 Pac-12), .255 (Last Week #4)  Resume: #16 UCLA (+.72), at #29 Washington (+.66), #53 Tennessee (+.25), at #78 Colorado (+.24), #56 Washington State (+.20), at #88 Virginia (+.15), #110 FCS/Nicholls State (+.05), #104 California (+.03), at #3 Stanford (-.00)

10. Auburn (9-1, 5-1 SEC), .251 (Last Week #14)  Resume: at #21 Texas A&M (+.69), #18 Mississippi (+.45), at #53 Tennessee (+.33), #74 Arkansas State (+.33), at #73 Arkansas (+.20), #56 Washington State (+.19), #62 Mississippi State (+.18), #79 Florida Atlantic (+.18), #110 FCS/Western Carolina (+.05), at #27 LSU (-.09)

11. Arizona State (7-2, 5-1 Pac-12), .245 (Last Week #13)  Resume: #20 Wisconsin (+.51), #29 Washington (+.50), #30 USC (+.48), at #56 Washington State (+.37), at #32 Utah (+.29), #78 Colorado (+.15), #110 FCS/Sacramento State (+.05), at #3 Stanford (-.01), vs. #24 Notre Dame (-.13)

12. Clemson (8-1, 6-1 ACC), .239 (Last Week #10)  Resume: at #52 Syracuse (+.61), #17 Georgia (+.41), at #85 Maryland (+.29), #57 Boston College (+.28), #80 Wake Forest (+.21), at #94 North Carolina State (+.18), at #88 Virginia (+.15), #110 FCS/South Carolina State (+.04), #1 Florida State (-.00)

13. Central Florida (7-1, 4-0 American), .236 (Last Week #16)  Resume: at #36 Louisville (+.76), #26 Houston (+.54), at #51 Penn State (+.38), at #96 Memphis (+.13), #91 Akron (+.12), at #124 Florida International (+.02), #121 Connecticut (+.01), #7 South Carolina (-.06)

14. BYU (6-3), .233 (Last Week #6)  Resume: at #26 Houston (+.65), #28 Texas (+.58), at #61 Utah State (+.53), #15 Georgia Tech (+.52), #49 Boise State (+.41), #69 Middle Tennessee (+.31), at #20 Wisconsin (-.04), #32 Utah (-.39), at #88 Virginia (-.47)

15. Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2 ACC), .204 (Last Week #25)   Resume: at #34 Duke (+.83), #52 Syracuse (+.53), #43 Pittsburgh (+.34), #55 North Carolina (+.21), at #88 Virginia (+.10), #110 FCS/Elon (+.05), at #31 Miami-FL (-.05), at #14 BYU (-.07), #8 Virginia Tech (-.10)

16. UCLA (7-2, 4-2 Pac-12), .201 (Last Week: #27)  Resume: at #40 Nebraska (+.68), at #42 Arizona (+.56), at #32 Utah (+.31), #78 Colorado (+.12), #99 Nevada (+.11), #104 California (+.03), #118 New Mexico State (+.01), at #9 Oregon (-.01), at #3 Stanford (-.01)

17. Georgia (6-3, 4-2 SEC), .201 (Last Week #12)  Resume: #7 South Carolina (+.59), #39 North Texas (+.48), #27 LSU (+.41), at #53 Tennessee (+.24), vs. #58 Florida (+.23), #110 FCS/Appalachian State (+.04), at #12 Clemson (-.01), #6 Missouri (-.02), at #46 Vanderbilt (-.15)

18. Mississippi (6-3, 3-3 SEC), .187 (Last Week #22)  Resume: at #28 Texas (+.81), #27 LSU (+.41), at #46 Vanderbilt (+.40), #73 Arkansas (+.11), #110 FCS/SE Missouri State (+.03), #115 Idaho (+.02), at #2 Alabama (-.00), at #10 Auburn (-.01), #21 Texas A&M (-.08)

19. Oklahoma (7-2, 4-2 Big 12), .186 (Last Week #9)  Resume: at #24 Notre Dame (+.65), #48 Texas Tech (+.38), #77 Louisiana-Monroe (+.29), #75 West Virginia (+.15), at #92 Kansas (+.13), #86 TCU (+.12), #111 Tulsa (+.05), at #4 Baylor (-.00), vs. #28 Texas (-.10)

20. Wisconsin (7-2, 4-1 Big Ten), .182 (Last Week #34)  Resume: at #38 Iowa (+.65), #14 BYU (+.51), #68 Northwestern (+.24), at #81 Illinois (+.16), #110 FCS/Tennessee Tech (+.05), #98 Purdue (+.04), #119 Massachusetts (+.01), at #5 Ohio State (-.00), at #11 Arizona State (-.02)

21. Texas A&M (8-2, 4-2 SEC), .181 (Last Week #29)  Resume: at #18 Mississippi (+.56), #59 Rice (+.37), #46 Vanderbilt (+.36), #62 Mississippi State (+.19), at #73 Arkansas (+.17), #100 SMU (+.14), #110 FCS/Sam Houston State (+.03), #123 UTEP (+.02), #2 Alabama (-.00), #10 Auburn (-.03)

#22 Michigan State (8-1, 5-0 Big Ten), .180 (Last Week #17)  Resume: at #38 Iowa (+.56), #35 Michigan (+.55), at #81 Illinois (+.24), #65 Indiana (+.20), #106 South Florida (+.06), #98 Purdue (+.05), #110 FCS/Youngstown State (+.04), #120 Western Michigan (+.01), at #24 Notre Dame (-.09)

#23 Fresno State (9-0, 6-0 Mountain West), .173 (Last Week #31)  Resume: #49 Boise State (+.32), at #89 San Diego State (+.31), at #95 Wyoming (+.29), #63 Rutgers (+.25), #83 UNLV (+.20), #99 Nevada (+.09), at #115 Idaho (+.05), #110 FCS/Cal Poly (+.03), at #116 Hawaii (+.02)

#24 Notre Dame (7-3), .168 (Last Week #15)  Resume: #22 Michigan State (+.62), vs. #11 Arizona State (+.61), #30 USC (+.47), #67 Navy (+.20), at #117 Air Force (+.06), at #98 Purdue (+.05), #114 Temple (+.03), #19 Oklahoma (-.08), at #35 Michigan (-.11), at #43 Pittsburgh (-.17)

#25 Oklahoma State (8-1, 5-1 Big 12), .166 (Last Week #18)  Resume: at #48 Texas Tech (+.58), vs. #62 Mississippi State (+.34), at #72 Texas-San Antonio (+.30), #50 Kansas State (+.27), #86 TCU (+.15), #92 Kansas (+.10), at #108 Iowa State (+.07), #110 FCS/Lamar (+.05), at #75 West Virginia (-.35)

  • 26.   Houston (7-2, 4-1 American), .161
  • 27.   LSU (7-3, 3-3 SEC), .154
  • 28.   Texas (7-2, 6-0 Big 12), .153
  • 29.   Washington (6-3, 3-3 Pac-12), .150
  • 30.   USC (7-3, 4-2 Pac-12), .148
  • 31.   Miami-FL (7-2, 3-2 ACC), .148
  • 32.   Utah (4-5, 1-5 Pac-12), .136
  • 33.   Minnesota (8-2, 4-2 Big Ten), .136
  • 34.   Duke (7-2, 3-2 ACC), .133
  • 35.   Michigan (6-3, 2-3 Big Ten), .131
  • 36.   Louisville (8-1, 4-1 American), .130
  • 37.   Northern Illinois (9-0, 5-0 MAC), .111
  • 38.   Iowa (6-4, 3-3 Big Ten), .111
  • 39.   North Texas (7-3, 5-1 Conference USA), .107
  • 40.   Nebraska (7-2, 4-1 Big Ten), .098

#KPI News

  • Baylor and Ohio State moved into the top-5 this week as both were helped by Buffalo’s 30-3 win over now No. 60 Ohio (6-3).  Florida State and Alabama have been the top two teams in the #KPI dating back to September 22.  Stanford maintains its spot at No. 3 after a 26-20 win vs. Oregon.
  • There are now six undefeated teams: #1 Florida State, #2 Alabama, #4 Baylor, #5 Ohio State, #23 Fresno State and #37 Northern Illinois.  Only 16 teams remain with one or fewer losses (6 of those 16 teams are outside the #KPI top-20).
  • Florida State and Alabama continue to control their own destiny for the championship game.  There remains significant separation between Stanford and Baylor/Ohio State.  Baylor has the toughest remaining schedule of the three (No. 37), followed by Stanford (No. 50) and Ohio State (No. 55).  This doesn’t include championship games – remember the Big 12 doesn’t have a championship game.
  • Ohio State’s biggest issue is not as much the Big Ten but who they miss playing in the Big Ten.  They have the easiest conference schedule nationally based on opponents missed (they miss Michigan State, Minnesota and Nebraska, a combined 23-5 overall and 13-3 in the Big Ten).  South Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and USC round out the top-5.
  • Wisconsin at Minnesota on November 23 will be the only Big Ten game where Ohio State or Wisconsin will face one of the top three teams in the Legends Division.
  • Central Florida continues to climb and controls their own destiny in the American Athletic Conference.  They have beaten two of the three teams with one loss (Houston, Louisville), but will not play Cincinnati.
  • Florida State has clinched the ACC Atlantic Division.  The Coastal Division is a mess.
  • There are five teams ranked in the AP poll and six teams in the USA Today/Coaches Poll who are not ranked in the #KPI top 25: #27 LSU, #28 Texas, #31 Miami-FL, #33 Minnesota (coaches poll only), #36 Louisville and #7 Northern Illinois.  #8 Virginia Tech, #14 BYU, #15 Georgia Tech, #17 Georgia (not in coaches poll), #18 Mississippi and #24 Notre Dame are top-25 #KPI teams not ranked.
  • Remaining SOS: 1-Notre Dame, 2-Auburn, 3-Texas Tech, 4-Oklahoma State, 5-Oregon State, 6-Texas A&M, 7-Virginia, 8-Mississippi State, 9-TCU, 10-Syracuse
  • MCOWP (Missed Conference Opponent Winning Percentage) in order of easiest to most difficult: 1-Ohio State, 2-South Carolina, t-3-Arizona, t-3-Michigan State, t-3-USC, t-3-Wisconsin, 7-Florida, 8-Nebraska, 9-Oregon, 10-Oregon State
  • MCSOS by KPI (Missed Conference Strength of Schedule) in order of easiest to most difficult: 1-South Carolina, 2-Florida, 3-Colorado, 4-USC, 5-Arizona, 6-Oregon, 7-California, 8-Michigan State, 9-Alabama, 10-Nebraska

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 20.6 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG, Week 7: 14.9 PPG, Week 8: 19.1 PPG, Week 9: 20.0 PPG, Week 10: 18.6 PPG, Week 11: 19.9 PPG).
  • The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.1 PPG. The margin in conference games is +17.5 PPG.
  • The current adjustments are +0.10 for road teams, -0.11 for home teams and -0.05 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The Pac-12 is the highest scoring conference (34.0 PPG). The SEC is second (32.9 PPG) and the Big 12 is third (31.9 PPG).
  • The ACC is allowing the fewest points (23.3 PPG). The Big Ten is second (24.7 PPG) and the SEC is third (25.1 PPG).
  • Kansas State (+27), Wisconsin (+14), Buffalo (+14), Arkansas State (+14) and Virginia Tech (+13) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week.  Florida (-16), Maryland (-16), Miami-FL (-12), Texas Tech (-12), Michigan (-11) and Mississippi State (-11) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.
  • The top outlier games of the year (based on expected results) are (1) Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19, (2) North Dakota State 24, Kansas State 21,  (3) Eastern Washington 49, Oregon State 46, (4) Iowa 23, Minnesota 7 and (5) Virginia 19, BYU 16.
  • The top outlier games for FBS vs. FBS games only are (1) Iowa 23, Minnesota 7, (2) Virginia 19, BYU 16, (3) Utah 27, Stanford 21, (4) West Virginia 30, Oklahoma State 21 and (5) Utah 20, BYU 13.

TOP 20 #KPI WINS

  1. +1.27     10/19     #1 Florida State 51, #12 Clemson 14
  2. +0.94     9/28       #38 Iowa 23, #33 Minnesota 7
  3. +0.87     10/26     #7 South Carolina 27, #6 Missouri 24 (2 OT)
  4. +0.83     9/14       #15 Georgia Tech 38, #34 Duke 14
  5. +0.82     8/31       #2 Alabama 35, #8 Virginia Tech 10
  6. +0.81     9/14       #18 Mississippi 44, #28 Texas 23
  7. +0.80     11/9       #8 Virginia Tech 42, #31 Miami-FL 24
  8. +0.78     9/28       #7 South Carolina 28, #13 Central Florida 25
  9. +0.78     9/28       #2 Alabama 25, #18 Mississippi 0
  10. +0.76     11/7       #4 Baylor 41, #19 Oklahoma 12
  11. +0.76     10/18     #13 Central Florida 38, #36 Louisville 35
  12. +0.76     9/21       #27 LSU 35, #10 Auburn 21
  13. +0.74     10/12     #32 Utah 27, #3 Stanford 21
  14. +0.73     10/26     #34 Duke 13, #8 Virginia Tech 10
  15. +0.72     10/26     #9 Oregon 42, #16 UCLA 14
  16. +0.71     9/21       #32 Utah 20, #14 BYU 13
  17. +0.71     9/14       #2 Alabama 49, #21 Texas A&M 42
  18. +0.71     9/7         #4 Baylor 70, #45 Buffalo 13
  19. +0.70     10/12     #28 Texas 36, #19 Oklahoma 20
  20. +0.70     9/26       #8 Virginia Tech 17, #15 Georgia Tech 10

Bold Indicates Home Team

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS

  1. SEC (83-49, .629 / 41-7, .854 non-conference) .142 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (67-43, .609 / 30-6, .833 non-conference) .119 KPI
  3. ACC (77-52, .597 / 36-11, .766 non-conference) .096 KPI
  4. Big Ten (68-42, .618 / 37-11, .771 non-conference) .088 KPI
  5. Big 12 (53-39, .576 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .049 KPI
  6. American (42-42, .500 / 20-20, .500 non-conference)  -.051 KPI
  7. Mountain West (53-60, .469 / 19-26, .422 non-conference) -.083 KPI
  8. Sun Belt (37-37, .500 / 19-19, .500 non-conference) -.093 KPI
  9. MAC (55-67, .451 / 20-32, .385 non-conference) -.108 KPI
  10. Conference USA (56-74, .431 / 18-36, .333 non-conference) -.116 KPI

TOP UPCOMING KPI GAMES – WEEK 12

  1. #17 Georgia at #10 Auburn (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  2. #15 Georgia Tech at #12 Clemson (Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  3. #3 Stanford at #30 USC (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
  4. #32 Utah at #9 Oregeon (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
  5. #29 Washington at #16 UCLA (Friday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  6. #4 Baylor vs #48 Texas Tech (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, FOX)
  7. #52 Syracuse at #1 Florida State (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Reverse Mirror)
  8. #25 Oklahoma State at #28 Texas (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
  9. #22 Michigan State at #40 Nebraska (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Reverse Mirror)
  10. #26 Houston at #36 Louisville (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 11): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-11.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 11): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-11.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 11): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-11.pdf

This is the #KPI.

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