WEEK 10 #KPI (as of 11/3/13)

Welcome to Week 10 of the #KPI.

#KPI Football Top 25 (November 3, 2013)

1. Florida State (8-0, 6-0 ACC), .467.  Best Wins: 10/19 at #10 Clemson 51-14 (+1.29), 11/2 vs. #19 Miami-FL 41-14 (+.83)

2. Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC), .359.  Best Wins: 9/28 vs. #22 Mississippi 25-0 (+.72), 9/14 at #29 Texas A&M (+.67)

3. Stanford (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12), .342.  Best Win: 10/19 vs. #27 UCLA 24-10 (+.62), Worst Loss: 10/12 at #28 Utah 21-27 (-.18)

4. Oregon (8-0, 5-0 Pac-12), .293.  Best Wins: 10/26 vs. #27 UCLA 41-14 (+.66), 10/12 at #30 Washington 45-24 (+.63)

5. Missouri (8-1, 4-1 SEC), .288.  Best Win: 10/12 at #12 Georgia 41-26 (+.65), Worst Loss: 10/26 vs. #8 South Carolina 24-27 (-.06)

6. BYU (6-2), .268.  Best Win: 10/19 at #23 Houston 47-46 (+.72), Worst Loss: 8/31 at #82 Virginia 16-19 (-.43)

7. Ohio State (9-0, 5-0 Big Ten), .264.  Best Wins: 9/28 vs. #34 Wisconsin 31-24 (+.51), 8/31 vs. #59 Buffalo 40-20 (+.45)

8. South Carolina (7-2, 5-2 SEC), .260.  Best Win: 10/26 at #5 Missouri 27-24 (+.87), Worst Loss: 10/19 at #44 Tennessee 21-23 (-.19)

9. Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1 Big 12), .259.  Best Win: 9/28 at #15 Notre Dame 35-21 (+.79), Worst Loss: 10/12 vs. #33 Texas 20-36 (-.13)

10. Clemson (8-1, 6-1 ACC), .247.  Best Win: 10/5 at #56 Syracuse 49-14 (+.49), Worst Loss: 10/19 vs. #1 Florida State 14-51 (-.003)

11. Baylor (7-0, 4-0 Big 12), .246.  Best Wins: 9/7 vs. #59 Buffalo 70-13 (+.57), 9/21 vs. #67 Louisiana-Monroe 70-7 (+.41)

12. Georgia (5-3, 4-2 SEC), .240.  Best Win: 9/7 vs. #8 South Carolina 41-30 (+.58), Worst Loss: 10/19 at #57 Vanderbilt 27-31 (-.21)

13. Arizona State (6-2, 4-1 Pac-12), .236.  Best Win: 10/19 vs. #30 Washington 53-24 (+.46), Worst Loss: 10/5 vs. #15 Notre Dame 34-37 (-.08)

14. Auburn (8-1, 4-1 SEC), .229.  Best Win: 10/19 at #29 Texas A&M 45-41 (+.65), Worst Loss: 9/21 at #20 LSU 21-35 (-.06)

15. Notre Dame (7-2), .210.  Best Win: 9/21 vs. #17 Michigan State 17-13 (+.65), Worst Loss: 9/7 at #24 Michigan 30-41 (-.06)

16. Central Florida (6-1, 3-0 American), .197.  Best Win: 10/18 at #32 Louisville 38-35 (+.78), Worst Loss: 9/28 vs. #8 South Carolina 25-28 (-.06)

17. Michigan State (8-1, 5-0 Big Ten), .194.  Best Win: 11/2 vs. #24 Michigan 29-6 (+.71), Worst Loss: 9/21 at #15 Notre Dame 13-17 (-.05)

18. Oklahoma State (7-1, 4-1 Big 12), .189.  Best Win: 11/2 at #36 Texas Tech 52-34 (+.75), Worst Loss: 9/28 at #71 West Virginia 21-30 (-.31)

19. Miami-FL (7-1, 3-1 ACC), .188.  Best Win: 10/5 vs. #25 Georgia Tech 45-30 (+.47), Worst Loss: 11/2 at #1 Florida State 14-41 (-.0005)

20. LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC), .184.  Best Win: 9/21 vs. #14 Auburn 35-21 (+.73), Worst Loss: 10/19 at #22 Mississippi 24-27 (-.09)

21. Virginia Tech (6-3, 3-2 ACC), .183.  Best Win: 9/26 at #25 Georgia Tech 17-10 (+.70), Worst Loss: 11/2 at #65 Boston College 27-34 (-.22)

22. Mississippi (5-3, 2-3 SEC), .181.  Best Win: 9/14 at #33 Texas 44-23 (+.73), Worst Loss: 10/12 vs. #29 Texas A&M 38-41 (-.10)

23. Houston (7-1, 4-0 American), .179.  Best Win: 10/26 at #60 Rutgers 49-14 (+.58), Worst Loss: 10/19 vs. #6 BYU 46-47 (-.07)

24. Michigan (6-2, 2-2 Big Ten), .177.  Best Win: 10/5 vs. #37 Minnesota 42-13 (+.64), Worst Loss: 10/12 at #45 Penn State 40-43 (-.13)

25. Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2 ACC), .172.  Best Win: 9/14 at #40 Duke 38-14 (+.78), Worst Loss: 9/26 vs. #21 Virginia Tech 10-17 (-.18)

#KPI News

  • The top four teams this week remain unchanged: #1 Florida State, #2 Alabama, #3 Stanford and #4 Oregon.  Missouri moves to #5 after beating Tennessee 31-3, replacing Ohio State (who moves to #7).  Ohio State got the maximum possible value for a 56-0 shutout at #94 Purdue, but fell slightly.
  • There are now seven undefeated teams remaining: #1 Florida State, #2 Alabama, #4 Oregon, #7 Ohio State, #11 Baylor, #31 Fresno State and #41 Northern Illinois.  Only 19 teams remain with either zero or one loss.
  • #FutureKPI is still projecting Alabama vs. Florida State in the championship game, but now Alabama is projected #1 while Florida State is projected #2.  Fresno State (#FutureKPI #11) is projected to finish undefeated and eligible for a BCS bowl bid.
  • If the seven teams currently undefeated all win out, #FutureKPI projects #1 Alabama (.442), #2 Florida State (.390), #3 Oregon (.386), #4 Baylor (.370), #5 Ohio State (.300), #11 Fresno State (.240) and #14 Northern Illinois (.227).  The gap between Oregon and Florida State has closed and is virtually tied now.  Unexpected results for Florida State opponents (like Pittsburgh’s loss at Navy on 10/26) have hurt Florida State, while Pac-12 competition heats up for Oregon.  As said last week here, the quality of opponent undefeated teams face in a potential conference championship game is going to be important.
  • Florida State has taken on five different teams who were undefeated when they played them.  They have beaten all five by a combined score of 250-47.
  • Michigan State’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown in 182:17 of elapsed game time.  By time MSU plays Nebraska in their next game on Nov. 16, the Spartans will have gone 34 days without allowing a touchdown.
  • There are seven teams ranked in both polls who are not ranked in the #KPI top 25: #27 UCLA, #29 Texas A&M, #31 Fresno State, #32 Louisville, #34 Wisconsin, #36 Texas Tech and #41 Northern Illinois.  There are also seven teams ranked in the #KPI top 25 not ranked in either poll: #6 BYU, #12 Georgia, #21 Virginia Tech, #22 Mississippi, #23 Houston, #24 Michigan and #25 Georgia Tech.  Five of those seven teams received votes in both polls.  18 of the top-20 #KPI teams are in the top 25 of both polls.
  • Why are there a few outliers?  Strength of schedule.  #6 BYU has played 7 of 8 games against teams at or above .500.  The same holds true for #12 Georgia, who has the #1 #KPI strength of schedule.
  • Remaining SOS: 1-Oregon State, 2-Auburn, 3-Notre Dame, 4-Wake Forest, 5-Arizona, 6-Mississippi State, 7-UCLA, 8-LSU, 9-Texas A&M, 10-Oregon
  • Most Difficult Conference SOS: 1-Kentucky, 2-Mississippi State, 3-Arkansas, 4-Tennessee, 5-Utah, 6-Texas A&M, 7-LSU, 8-UCLA, 9-Mississippi, 10-Auburn
  • MCSOS (missed conference strength of schedule) in order of easiest to most difficult: 1-USC, 2-South Carolina, 3-Oregon, 4-California, 5-Florida, 6-Colorado, 7-Alabama, 8-Arizona, 9-Washington, t-10-Missouri, t-10-Vanderbilt

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 20.7 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG, Week 7: 14.9 PPG, Week 8: 19.1 PPG, Week 9: 20.0 PPG, Week 10: 18.6 PPG).
  • The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.3 PPG. The margin in conference games is +17.0 PPG.
  • The current adjustments are +0.10 for road teams, -0.12 for home teams and -0.06 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The Pac-12 is the highest scoring conference (34.4 PPG). The SEC is second (32.8 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (32.5 PPG).
  • The ACC is allowing the fewest points (22.9 PPG). The SEC is second (24.4 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (24.7 PPG).
  • Oklahoma State (+22), Boston College (+17), Michigan State (+14), USC (+13) and Wisconsin (+13) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week.  Oregon State (-16), Wake Forest (-14), Indiana (-12), TCU (-12) and South Alabama (-12) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.
  • The top outlier games of the year (based on expected results) are (1) Eastern Washington 49, Oregon State 46, (2) Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19, (3) Virginia 19, BYU 16, (4) Iowa 23, Minnesota 7 and (5) North Dakota State 24, Kansas State 21.
  • Virginia’s win over BYU is the top outlier win among all FBS vs. FBS games.  Clemson’s loss to Florida State is the top outlier loss currently on the board.

TOP 10 #KPI WINS

  1. +1.29     10/19     #1 Florida State 51, #10 Clemson 14
  2. +0.89     9/28       #39 Iowa 23, #37 Minnesota 7
  3. +0.87     10/26     #8 South Carolina 27, #5 Missouri 24 (2 OT)
  4. +0.83     11/2       #1 Florida State 41, #19 Miami-FL 14
  5. +0.81     10/12     #33 Texas 36, #9 Oklahoma 20
  6. +0.81     9/21       #28 Utah 20, #6 BYU 13
  7. +0.79     9/28       #9 Oklahoma 35, #15 Notre Dame 21
  8. +0.78     10/18     #16 Central Florida 38, #32 Louisville 35
  9. +0.78     9/14       #25 Georgia Tech 38, #40 Duke 14
  10. +0.75     11/2       #18 Oklahoma State 52, #36 Texas Tech 34

Bold Indicates Home Team

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS

  1. SEC (76-43, .639 / 40-7, .851 non-conference) .146 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (62-38, .620 / 30-6, .833 non-conference) .123 KPI
  3. ACC (70-47, .598 / 34-11, .756 non-conference) .093 KPI
  4. Big Ten (63-38, .624 / 36-11, .766 non-conference) .085 KPI
  5. Big 12 (48-34, .585 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .054 KPI
  6. American (38-39, .494 / 19-20, .487 non-conference)  -.059 KPI
  7. Mountain West (48-54, .471 / 19-25, .432 non-conference) -.082 KPI
  8. Sun Belt (34-35, .493 / 18-19, .486 non-conference) -.093 KPI
  9. MAC (51-63, .447 / 20-32, .385 non-conference) -.113 KPI
  10. Conference USA (50-68, .424 / 18-36, .333 non-conference) -.119 KPI

TOP UPCOMING KPI GAMES – WEEK 11

  1. #4 Oregon at #3 Stanford (Thursday 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  2. #9 Oklahoma at #11 Baylor (Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
  3. #20 LSU at #2 Alabama (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, CBS)
  4. #23 Houston at #16 Central Florida (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  5. #6 BYU at #34 Wisconsin (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  6. #21 Virginia Tech at #19 Miami-FL (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  7. #13 Arizona State at #28 Utah (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
  8. #14 Auburn at #44 Tennessee (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  9. #27 UCLA at #35 Arizona (Saturday 10 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  10. #15 Notre Dame at #54 Pittsburgh (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC)

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 10): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-10.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 10): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-10.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 10): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/11/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-10.pdf

This is the #KPI.

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