WEEK 9 #KPI (as of 10/27/13)

Welcome to Week 9 of the #KPI.  The top-25 rankings now include a team’s best win and worst loss (or top two wins if the team has no losses).

#KPI Football Top 25 (October 27, 2013)

1. Florida State (7-0)               .427:   Best Wins: 10/19 at #8 Clemson 51-14 (+1.29), 9/2 at #45 Pittsburgh 41-13 (+0.59)

2. Alabama (8-0)                       .388:   Best Wins: 8/31 vs. #12 Virginia Tech 35-10 (+0.79), 9/28 vs. #23 Mississippi 25-0 (+0.72)

3. Stanford (7-1)                       .349:   Best Win: 10/26 at #48 Oregon State 20-12 (+0.67).  Worst Loss: 10/12 at #28 Utah 21-27 (-0.18)

4. Oregon (8-0)                         .314:   Best Wins: 10/12 at #32 Washington 45-24 (+0.63), 10/26 vs. #27 UCLA 42-14 (+0.63)

5. Ohio State (8-0)                   .283:   Best Wins: 8/31 vs. #59 Buffalo 40-20 (+0.45), 9/28 vs. #47 Wisconsin 31-24 (+0.43)

6. Missouri (7-1)                       .273:   Best Win: 10/12 at #14 Georgia 41-26 (+0.59).  Worst Loss: 10/26 vs. #9 South Carolina 24-27 (-0.08)

7. Oklahoma (7-1)                    .256:   Best Win: 9/28 at #22 Notre Dame 35-21 (+0.75).  Worst Loss: 10/12 vs. #25 Texas 20-36 (-0.13)

8. Clemson (7-1)                       .254:   Best Win: 10/26 at #65 Maryland 40-27 (+0.47).  Worst Loss: 10/19 vs. #1 Florida State 14-51 (-0.003)

9. South Carolina (6-2)           .249:   Best Win: 10/26 at #6 Missouri 27-24 (+0.86).  Worst Loss: 10/19 at #42 Tennessee 21-23 (-0.16)

10. BYU (6-2)                              .243:   Best Win: 10/19 at #18 Houston 47-46 (+0.73).  Worst Loss: 8/31 at #79 Virginia 16-19 (-0.41)

11. Auburn (7-1)                       .232:   Best Win: 10/19 at #20 Texas A&M 45-41 (+0.68).  Worst Loss: 9/21 at #17 LSU 21-35 (-0.05)

12. Virginia Tech (6-2)            .225:   Best Win: 9/26 at #26 Georgia Tech 17-10 (+0.66).  Worst Loss: 10/26 vs. #30 Duke 10-13 (-0.13)

13. Baylor (7-0)                         .220:   Best Wins: 9/7 vs. #59 Buffalo 70-13 (+0.57), 9/21 vs. #69 Louisiana-Monroe 70-7 (+0.31)

14. Georgia (4-3)                      .216:   Best Win: 9/7 vs. #9 South Carolina 41-30 (+0.53).  Worst Loss: 10/19 at #61 Vanderbilt 27-31 (-0.22)

15. Miami-FL (7-0)                   .214:   Best Wins: 10/5 vs. #26 Georgia Tech 45-30 (+0.43), 9/7 vs. #36 Florida 21-16 (+0.37)

16. Michigan (6-1)                   .199:   Best Win: 10/5 vs. #38 Minnesota 42-13 (+0.60).  Worst Loss: 10/12 at #46 Penn State 40-43 (-0.14)

17. LSU (7-2)                               .198:   Best Win: 9/21 vs. #11 Auburn 35-21 (+0.70).  Worst Loss: 9/28 at #14 Georgia 41-44 (-0.09)

18. Houston (6-1)                     .196:   Best Win: 10/26 at #57 Rutgers 49-14 (+0.59).  Worst Loss: 10/19 vs. #10 BYU 46-47 (-0.08)

19. Arizona State (5-2)           .195:   Best Win: 10/19 vs. #32 Washington 53-24 (+0.46).  Worst Loss:  10/5 vs. #22 Notre Dame 34-37 (-0.09)

20. Texas A&M (6-2)               .188:   Best Win: 10/12 at #23 Mississippi 41-38 (+0.54).  Worst Loss:  10/19 vs. #11 Auburn 41-45 (-0.05)

21. Central Florida (6-1)        .186:   Best Win: 10/18 at #33 Louisville 38-35 (+0.77).  Worst Loss:  9/28 vs. #9 South Carolina 25-28 (-0.08)

22. Notre Dame (6-2)             .185:   Best Win: 9/21 vs. #31 Michigan State 17-13 (+0.59).  Worst Loss:  9/28 vs. #7 Oklahoma 21-35 (-0.04)

23. Mississippi (5-3)               .181:   Best Win: 9/14 at #25 Texas 44-23 (+0.73).  Worst Loss: 10/12 vs. #20 Texas A&M 38-41 (-0.09)

24. Fresno State (7-0)             .167:   Best Wins: 10/19 vs. #63 UNLV 38-14 (+0.35), 9/20 vs. #55 Boise State 41-40 (+0.26)

25. Texas (5-2)                           .163:   Best Win: 10/12 vs. #7 Oklahoma 36-20 (+0.81).  Worst Loss:  vs. #23 Mississippi 23-44 (-0.19)

#KPI News

  • There are now eight undefeated teams remaining: #1 Florida State, #2 Alabama, #4 Oregon, #5 Ohio State, #13 Baylor, #15 Miami-FL, #24 Fresno State and #37 Northern Illinois.  There are only 21 total teams with either zero or one loss still on the board.
  • #4 Oregon (8-0) will play at #3 Stanford (7-1) on November 7 (9 p.m. ET, ESPN).  The winner of the game will be in the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 North and to host the Pac-12 Championship Game.  A Stanford win means Florida State and Alabama control their own destiny (with Ohio State knocking on the door).  A Oregon win means that style points and human polls will become a big factor in the national title.
  • #FutureKPI is still projecting #1 Florida State vs. #2 Alabama in the national championship game.  Fresno State (#FutureKPI #10) is projected undefeated and eligible for a BCS bowl bid.
  • If Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, Baylor and Ohio State all finish undefeated, the #FutureKPI projects Alabama (.443), Florida State (.386), Oregon (.363), Baylor (.361) and Ohio State (.307) in that order.  Four of the five schools compete in conferences who have a championship game.  MARK MY WORDS!  If more than two of these teams are undefeated, the quality of opponent will be an important factor in determining the top two.  The change from last week to this week was driven completely by that factor.
  • Missouri still controls its own destiny in the SEC East despite the narrow loss to South Carolina late Saturday.  However, Missouri has SEC games with Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi and Texas A&M remaining while South Carolina (the only 2-loss team in the division who Missouri lost to) has only two SEC games remaining: Mississippi State and Florida, both at home.  The SEC West may not be decided until Alabama-Auburn on Nov. 30.
  • The next three weeks will do a lot in deciding the Big Ten Legends Division.  The three teams with zero and one loss in conference play (Michigan State, Michigan, Nebraska) all play one another over the next three Saturdays, all one home and one away each. Iowa and Minnesota are hanging around with two conference losses apiece.
  • Relative to this week’s AP poll, there are a few outliers.  #KPI likes Virginia Tech, BYU, Georgia, Arizona and Duke better than the voters.  The writers like Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Oregon State and Northern Illinois better than the #KPI does.
  • There are six teams ranked in both polls who are not in the #KPI top 25: #27 UCLA, #31 Michigan State, #33 Louisville, #35 Texas  Tech, #37 Northern Illinois, #40 Oklahoma State and #47 Wisconsin.  There are six teams ranked in the #KPI top 25 not ranked in both polls: #10 BYU, #12 Virginia Tech, #14 Georgia, #18 Houston, #23 Mississippi and #25 Texas.  The biggest factor is STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, clearly valued more by #KPI than the polls right now.

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 20.9 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG, Week 7: 14.9 PPG, Week 8: 19.1 PPG, Week 9: 20.0 PPG).
  • The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.3 PPG. The margin in conference games is +16.8 PPG.
  • The current adjustments are +0.10 for road teams, -0.13 for home teams and -0.06 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The Pac-12 is the highest scoring conference (34.7 PPG). The Big Ten is second (33.5 PPG) and the SEC is third (33.2 PPG).
  • The ACC is allowing the fewest points (22.9 PPG). The Big Ten is second (24.67 PPG) and the Big 12 is third (24.72 PPG).
  • Duke (+21), South Carolina (+17), Toledo (+17), Louisiana-Lafayette (+16), Navy (+15) and Middle Tennessee (+15) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week.  West Virginia (-20), Boston College (-19), UCLA (-18), Nebraska (-14), Utah (-13) and Marshall (-13) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.
  • The top outlier games of the year (based on expected results) are (1) Eastern Washington 49, Oregon State 46, (2) Eastern Illinois 40, San Diego State 19, (3) UTEP 42, New Mexico State 21, (4) Utah 20, BYU 13 and (5) Virginia 19, BYU 16.

TOP 10 #KPI WINS

  1. +1.29     10/19     #1 Florida State 51, #10 Clemson 14
  2. +0.86     10/26     #9 South Carolina 27, #6 Missouri 24 (2 OT)
  3. +0.85     9/28       #34 Iowa 23, #38 Minnesota 7
  4. +0.84     9/14       #26 Georgia Tech 38, #30 Duke 14
  5. +0.81     10/12     #25 Texas 36, #7 Oklahoma 20
  6. +0.79     8/31       #2 Alabama 35, #12 Virginia Tech 10
  7. +0.78     9/21       #28 Utah 20, #10 BYU 13
  8. +0.77     10/18     #21 Central Florida 38, #33 Louisville 35
  9. +0.75     9/28       #7 Oklahoma 35, #22 Notre Dame 21
  10. +0.73     9/14       #23 Mississippi 44, #25 Texas 23

Bold Indicates Home Team

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS

  1. SEC (70-39, .642 / 38-7, .844 non-conference) .153 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (58-34, .630 / 30-6, .833 non-conference) .128 KPI
  3. ACC (64-41, .610 / 34-11, .756 non-conference) .099 KPI
  4. Big Ten (57-32, .640 / 36-11, .766 non-conference) .079 KPI
  5. Big 12 (44-30, .595 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .057 KPI
  6. American (35-36, .493 / 19-20, .487 non-conference)  -.063 KPI
  7. Mountain West (42-49, .462 / 18-25, .419 non-conference) -.093 KPI
  8. Sun Belt (29-32, .475 / 16-19, .457 non-conference) -.094 KPI
  9. MAC (48-60, .444 / 20-32, .385 non-conference) -.113 KPI
  10. Conference USA (44-61, .419 / 18-35, .340 non-conference) -.130 KPI

TOP UPCOMING KPI GAMES – WEEK 10

  1. #15 Miami-FL at #1 Florida State (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
  2. #16 Michigan at #31 Michigan State (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
  3. #42 Tennessee at #6 Missouri (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  4. #36 Florida vs. #14 Georgia (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  5. #49 Mississippi State at #9 South Carolina (Saturday 12:21 p.m. ET, SEC TV and ESPN GamePlan/ESPN3)
  6. #19 Arizona State at #52 Washington State (Thursday 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  7. #45 Pittsburgh at #26 Georgia Tech (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  8. #40 Oklahoma State at #35 Texas Tech (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, FOX)
  9. #11 Auburn at #67 Arkansas (Saturday 6 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  10. #47 Wisconsin at #34 Iowa (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Reverse Mirror)

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 9): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-9.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 9): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-9.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 9): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-9.pdf

This is the #KPI.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

One Response to WEEK 9 #KPI (as of 10/27/13)

  1. Pingback: WEEK 10 #KPI (as of 11/3/13) | #KPI: Competition Analytics

Comments are closed.