WEEK 8 #KPI (as of 10/20/13)

Welcome to Week 8 of the #KPI.

#KPI Football Top 25 (October 20, 2013)

  1. Florida State (6-0)           .551
  2. Alabama (7-0)                   .399
  3. Missouri (7-0)                   .347
  4. Stanford (6-1)                    .313
  5. Oregon (7-0)                      .297
  6. Virginia Tech (6-1)           .285
  7. Ohio State (7-0)                 .261
  8. Auburn (6-1)                      .247
  9. UCLA (5-1)                          .242
  10. Clemson (6-1)                   .238
  11. LSU (6-2)                              .230
  12. Central Florida (5-1)       .221
  13. Georgia (4-3)                     .210
  14. Baylor (6-0)                        .203
  15. Utah (4-3)                           .202
  16. Miami-FL (6-0)                  .197
  17. Arizona State (5-2)          .196
  18. Oklahoma (6-1)                 .193
  19. BYU (5-2)                             .190
  20. Michigan (6-1)                  .186
  21. Notre Dame (5-2)            .185
  22. Mississippi (4-3)              .179
  23. Louisville (6-1)                  .177
  24. Texas A&M (5-2)              .177
  25. Texas Tech (7-0)               .171

#KPI News

  • #1 Florida State’s 51-14 win at #10 Clemson was off-the-charts good from a statistical standpoint. The win was worth +1.26, easily the best on the board this season. FSU is third in points scored (53.2 PPG) and third in points allowed (12.3 PPG).  Their +40.8 PPG margin of victory is second only to #14 Baylor (+48.5 PPG).
  • The SEC was flipped upside down on Saturday.  #2 Alabama, #3 Missouri and #8 Auburn all control their own destiny to make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game on Dec. 7.  All other SEC teams have a minimum of two conference losses.  Missouri already owns the tiebreaker on two of the four SEC East teams that the lead by two games.  They will face the other two (#26 South Carolina and #40 Tennessee) at home the next two weeks.
  • Remember that the American Athletic Conference champion receives an automatic bid to the final year of the BCS.  #12 Central Florida is in a three-way tie for the lead now, but owns the tiebreaker on #23 Louisville after Friday night’s win.  Where UCF finishes in the BCS standings is critical.  A non-AQ (automatic qualifier) conference (Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt) team needs to finish in the top 12 of the BCS standings to secure a BCS bowl game.  There is an exception where they only need to finish in the top 16 if they finish ahead of an AQ conference champion.
  • The #KPI has Oregon at #5. Oregon’s opponent winning percentage to date is No. 102, and their #KPI strength of schedule is No. 45.  Their next three games (vs. #9 UCLA, at #4 Stanford, vs. #15 Utah) will say a lot about their title hopes.
  • A VERY interesting scenario is developing should #1 Florida State, #2 Alabama and #5 Oregon all finish 13-0. #3 Missouri, #7 Ohio State, #14 Baylor, #16 Miami-FL and #25 Texas Tech are also unbeaten in top-5 conferences. The final year of the BCS could have considerable controversy should this continue playing out the way it is trending.
  • #FutureKPI is projecting #1 Florida State vs. #2 Alabama in the National Championship Game.  Fresno State (#FutureKPI #10) is projected undefeated and eligible for a BCS bowl bid.
  • If Florida State, Alabama and Oregon are all undefeated, the #FutureKPI projects Florida State (.411), Alabama (.398) and Oregon (.377).  All teams would need to make and win their conference championship games for such a scenario.

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 21.0 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG, Week 7: 14.9 PPG, Week 8: 19.1 PPG).
  • The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.3 PPG. The margin in conference games is +16.1 PPG.
  • The current adjustments are +0.11 for road teams, -0.13 for home teams and -0.07 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The Pac-12 is the highest scoring conference (36.1 PPG). The Big Ten is second (34.2 PPG) and the SEC is third (33.0 PPG).
  • The ACC is allowing the fewest points (22.6 PPG). The Big 12 is second (23.7 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (24.6 PPG).
  • Louisiana-Lafayette (+23), Vanderbilt (+20), Minnesota (+19), BYU (+16), Central Florida (+16) and Wake Forest (+16) made the largest jumps in the #KPI this week.  Maryland (-24), Wyoming (-22), Syracuse (-20), Northwestern (-15) and Western Kentucky (-13) fell the furthest in this week’s #KPI.

TOP 10 #KPI WINS

  1. +1.26     10/19     #1 Florida State 51, #10 Clemson 14
  2. +0.98     8/31       #2 Alabama 35, #6 Virginia Tech 10
  3. +0.79     9/28       #26 South Carolina 28, #12 Central Florida 25
  4. +0.77     9/14       #9 UCLA 41, #46 Nebraska 21
  5. +0.76     9/2         #1 Florida State 41, #35 Pittsburgh 13
  6. +0.75     10/12     #34 Texas 36, #18 Oklahoma 20
  7. +0.74     10/18     #12 Central Florida 38, #23 Louisville 35
  8. +0.74     9/28       #38 Iowa 23, #50 Minnesota 7
  9. +0.73     9/28       #18 Oklahoma 35, #21 Notre Dame 21
  10. +0.73     9/21       #15 Utah 20, #19 BYU 13

Bold Indicates Home Team

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS

  1. SEC (63-35, .643 / 35-7, .833 non-conference) .157 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (53-29, .646 / 30-6, .833 non-conference) .137 KPI
  3. ACC (58-34, .630 / 34-10, .773 non-conference) .107 KPI
  4. Big Ten (53-28, .654 / 36-11, .766 non-conference) .075 KPI
  5. Big 12 (39-25, .609 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .050 KPI
  6. American (31-32, .492 / 19-20, .487 non-conference)  -.068 KPI
  7. Mountain West (38-43, .469 / 18-23, .439 non-conference) -.097 KPI
  8. Sun Belt (25-28, .472 / 16-19, .457 non-conference) -.104 KPI
  9. MAC (42-54, .438 / 20-32, .385 non-conference) -.114 KPI
  10. Conference USA (38-54, .413 / 18-34, .346 non-conference) -.134 KPI

TOP UPCOMING KPI GAMES – WEEK 9

  1. #9 UCLA at #5 Oregon (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  2. #26 South Carolina at #3 Missouri (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  3. #4 Stanford at #37 Oregon State (Saturday 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  4. #40 Tennessee at #2 Alabama (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  5. #25 Texas Tech at #18 Oklahoma (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
  6. #41 Penn State at #7 Ohio State (Saturday 8 p.m. ET, ABC)
  7. #51 Duke at #6 Virginia Tech (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  8. #15 Utah at #43 USC (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
  9. #48 Boise State at #19 BYU (Friday 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  10. #10 Clemson at #62 Maryland (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 8): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-8.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 8): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-8.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 8): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-8.pdf

This is the #KPI.

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