WEEK 6 #KPI (as of 10/6/13)

Welcome to Week 6 of the #KPI.

#KPI Football Top 25 (October 6, 2013)

  1. Florida State (5-0)           .501
  2. Alabama (5-0)                   .480
  3. Stanford (5-0)                    .362
  4. UCLA (4-0)                          .348
  5. Clemson (5-0)                   .336
  6. Georgia (4-1)                     .317
  7. Virginia Tech (5-1)           .281
  8. Missouri (5-0)                   .263
  9. Washington (4-1)            .256
  10. Oklahoma (5-0)                .255
  11. Ohio State (6-0)                 .244
  12. Miami-FL (5-0)                  .242
  13. Oregon (5-0)                      .241
  14. Texas Tech (5-0)               .223
  15. Baylor (4-0)                        .212
  16. Auburn (4-1)                      .212
  17. Louisville (5-0)                  .195
  18. LSU (5-1)                              .194
  19. Michigan (5-0)                  .192
  20. South Carolina (4-1)       .188
  21. Houston (4-0)                    .187
  22. Florida (4-1)                       .183
  23. Northern Illinois (5-0)   .161
  24. Arizona (3-1)                      .161
  25. Fresno State (5-0)            .149

#KPI News

  • Florida State is the new #1 in the #KPI.  Florida State and Alabama now sit 1-2 in the rankings and have a considerable advantage over #3 Stanford. #FutureKPI currently projects out that a 13-0 Florida State team will play a 13-0 Alabama team in the National Championship.
  • The SEC and Pac-12 are going to finish 1-2 in the conference pecking order.  The top-5 (SEC, Pac-12, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12) will remain unchanged the rest of the season. For a non-SEC or Pac-12 team to make it to the championship game, those teams must have one fewer loss than all SEC or Pac-12 teams. That’s a tough order, and slim margin of error.
  • #FutureKPI has three undefeated teams finishing outside the top-10: Louisville (projected #12 KPI, 12-0); Northern Illinois (projected #15 KPI, 13-0); Fresno State (projected #16 KPI, 12-0). As it sits now, Fresno State not having the opportunity to play at Colorado will make the difference between they and NIU stealing an at-large BCS bid.
  • Georgia’s late drive to tie Tennessee and send the game to overtime earned them a +0.38 rating for the win as opposed to a -0.07 for the loss: a difference between a #6 and #15 KPI ranking.
  • Florida State’s 63-0 win over Maryland was the third largest margin of victory over an FBS team this year. Louisville beat #114 FIU 72-0 and Baylor beat #80 Louisiana-Monroe 70-7, both on 9/21.
  • Georgia has and projects to finish with the #1 KPI SOS. Georgia is 2-1 vs. the KPI top-20, the only team with more than one top-20 win. TCU is the only other school to play three KPI top-20 teams.
  • Three teams have yet to play a conference game: Colorado State, Connecticut and Georgia State.

#KPI Numbers

  • The average margin in games this year has been 22.1 points per game. (Week 1: 22.9 PPG; Week 2: 24.8 PPG; Week 3: 20.1 PPG; Week 4: 25.4 PPG; Week 5: 19.4 PPG; Week 6: 18.0 PPG).
  • For those arguing for fewer conference games, look here.  The average margin of victory in non-conference games is +24.6 PPG (drops to +21.7 PPG if games against FCS competition aren’t included). The margin in conference games is +15.7 PPG.
  • All that talk about how SEC games are higher scoring this year? Last year, games totaled 51.1 PPG. This year through 17 conference games, games are averaging 61.6 PPG, a 10.5 PPG increase.
  • Home teams are 245-114 (.682) on the year. When not including games vs. FCS teams, home teams are 165-100 (.623).
  • The current adjustments are +0.12 for road teams, -0.15 for home teams and -0.09 for neutral site teams. Remember, these adjustments are all based on current data to date.
  • The Pac-12 is the highest scoring conference (37.8 PPG). The Big Ten is second (35.2 PPG) and the SEC is third (34.1 PPG).
  • The Big 12 is allowing the fewest points (21.9 PPG). The ACC is second (22.3 PPG) and the Big Ten is third (22.8 PPG).

TOP 10 #KPI WINS

  1. +0.94     9/2         #1 Florida State 41, #28 Pittsburgh 13
  2. +0.88     8/31       #2 Alabama 35, #7 Virginia Tech 10
  3. +0.86     10/5       #1 Florida State 63, #38 Maryland 0
  4. +0.77     9/1         #17 Louisville 49, #31 Ohio 7
  5. +0.72     9/28       #2 Alabama 25, #34 Mississippi 0
  6. +0.70     9/14       #4 UCLA 41, #37 Nebraska 21
  7. +0.70     9/14       #7 Virginia Tech 15, #40 East Carolina 10
  8. +0.68     9/14       #2 Alabama 49, #27 Texas A&M 42
  9. +0.68     9/28       #20 South Carolina 28, #33 Central Florida 25
  10. +0.64     9/28       #10 Oklahoma 35, #29 Notre Dame 21

Bold Indicates Home Team

CONFERENCE KPI RANKINGS

  1. SEC (50-24, .676 / 33-7, .825 non-conference) .145 KPI
  2. Pac-12 (41-17, .707 / 29-5, .853 non-conference) .139 KPI
  3. ACC (47-24, .662 / 32-9, .780 non-conference) .118 KPI
  4. Big Ten (44-19, .698 / 36-11, .766 non-conference) .074 KPI
  5. Big 12 (31-17, .646 / 22-8, .733 non-conference) .032 KPI
  6. American (23-24, .489 / 18-19, .486 non-conference)  -.074 KPI
  7. Mountain West (29-34, .460 / 18-23, .439 non-conference) -.095 KPI
  8. MAC (31-41, .431 / 19-29, .396 non-conference) -.108 KPI
  9. Sun Belt (19-24, .442 / 14-19, .424 non-conference) -.110 KPI
  10. Conference USA (29-46, .387 / 17-34, .333 non-conference) -.131 KPI

TOP UPCOMING KPI GAMES – WEEK 7

  1. #8 Missouri at #6 Georgia (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  2. #13 Oregon at #9 Washington (Saturday 4 p.m. ET, FOX Sports 1)
  3. #3 Stanford at #30 Utah (Saturday 6 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network)
  4. #28 Pittsburgh at #7 Virginia Tech (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU)
  5. #2 Alabama at #87 Kentucky (Saturday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
  6. #22 Florida at #18 LSU (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
  7. #54 Boston College at #5 Clemson (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2 Reverse Mirror)
  8. #89 California at #4 UCLA (Saturday 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2 or ESPNU)
  9. #45 Rutgers at #17 Louisville (Thursday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)
  10. #26 Indiana at #32 Michigan State (Saturday 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

Updated data is linked below in PDF form:

#KPI by Team (through Week 6): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-team-week-6.pdf

#KPI by Conference (through Week 6): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-conference-week-6.pdf

#KPI Results/TV Schedule (through Week 6): https://kpisports.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/2013-14-master-schedule-football-by-game-week-6.pdf

This is the #KPI.

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